The New Normal Consulting team publish The pH Report – The litmus test for the global economy.
The Report’s value proposition is based on the proven record of the chemical industry as the leading indicator for the global economy
It is normally 6-9 months ahead of the consensus in detecting trend changes, which makes it an ideal tool for investors. Previous examples of its accuracy in calling turning points include its forecast of the 2008 subprime crisis and its early warning of the changing impact of COVID-19 in 2020-22.
The Report is data-driven and covers areas where the team has long-term expertise. Currently it is focused on:
- The end of the two great “dividends” that have powered global growth since the 1980s. The “demographic dividend” created by the BabyBoomer generation has now become a “demographic deficit”, as the Boomers join the lower-spending, lower-earning Perennials 55+ cohort. And we have lost the “peace dividend” created by the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, that allowed $tns to be diverted from armaments to health and social spending.
- China’s economy has been “subprime on steroids” since 2009. It led the global economy out of recession after 2008, but its $43tn of stimulus meant that real estate became 29% of GDP. This “bubble” is now inevitably bursting. Beijing plans to replace the lost jobs by boosting manufacturing exports, which risks creating major over-capacity in global markets.
- Geopolitics are rising up the agenda again. This means that economics are no longer the main factor in decision-making. Major wars are now underway in Ukraine and the Middle East, whilst OPEC+ continues to target higher oil prices in support of its political objectives.
- Sustainability is also rising up the agenda – and creating major changes/ tensions in global markets. Auto markets highlight the exponential nature of the developments underway, with Electric Vehicles taking 18% of the global market in 2023 versus just 4% in 2020, as an increasing number of governments mandate the end of gasoline/diesel cars by 2030/35.
- These paradigm shifts are also reinforcing each other. The Ukraine war, for example, means Western governments are accelerating the move to renewables so as to reduce Russian influence on energy markets. This development adds to the value of timely analysis and good judgement.
$10,995 per year
What our subscribers say:
The pH Report forecasts
We began warning that a global recession was starting to develop.
Our June Report was headlined ‘Recession risks rise as central banks finally move to tackle inflation’
We were one of the first to highlight inflation risk.
In April, we warned “We expect significant inflation in the short-term”
We forecast in early February that the Covid-19 virus would be the catalyst for recession
Our February Report was headlined ‘Coronavirus concerns confirm economic expansion is ending’
The end of business as usual – we foresaw a ‘synchronised global slowdown’
In 2018-19 we suggested optimism over economic recovery was misplaced
The pH Report forecasts slowing growth in China
“Last year Paul Hodges sent me a report saying the oil price was about to plummet. He saw it falling to $50/bbl in the first half of this year”
Merryn Somerset Webb
Moneyweek, January 2015
In 2014-15, The pH Report accurately forecast the dramatic drop in oil prices from $115/bbl to $30/bbl