The New Normal Consulting team publish The pH Report – The litmus test for the global economy.
The Report’s value proposition is based on the proven record of the chemical industry as the leading indicator for the global economy
It is normally 6-9 months ahead of the consensus in detecting trend changes, which makes it an ideal tool for investors. Previous examples of its accuracy in calling turning points include its forecast of the 2008 subprime crisis and its early warning of the changing impact of COVID-19 in 2020-22.
The Report is data-driven and covers areas where the team has long-term expertise. Currently it is focused on:
- The deteriorating outlook for the lobal economy and financial markets. All the major chemical companies are now warning of recession and massive over-capacity as central banks’ stimulus programmes finally unwind.
- The imapct of aging populations on demand. Rising life expectancy means that an entirely new generation, the Perennials 55+, are now the main source of population growth in the world and in 9 of the Top 10 economies. This creates a major headwind for growth, as the Perennials already own most of what they need and their incomes decline as they move into retirement.
- China’s economy has been ‘subprime on steriods’ since 2009. It led the global economy out of recession after 2008, but its $43tn of stimulus means that real estate now accounts for 29% of GDP – and the bubble is now clearly starting to burst with sales and prices already in a downturn.
- Geopolitics are rising up the agenda again. Russia’s invasion, and OPEC+’s decision to target higher oil prices by reducing output, highlight the paradigm shift underway. It creates major risks for investors, as one can no longer assume that economics will drive rational decisions.
- Consumer markets are seeing major change. Auto markets highlight the exponential nature of these changes, with Electric Vehicles already accounting for 18% of the global market in 2022 versus just 4% in 2020, as an increasing number of major states mandate the end of gasoline/diesel cars by 2030/35.
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What our subscribers say:
The pH Report forecasts
2022
We began warning that a global recession was starting to develop.
Our June Report was headlined ‘Recession risks rise as central banks finally move to tackle inflation’
2021
We were one of the first to highlight inflation risk.
In April, we warned “We expect significant inflation in the short-term”
2020
We forecast in early February that the Covid-19 virus would be the catalyst for recession
Our February Report was headlined ‘Coronavirus concerns confirm economic expansion is ending’
2019
The end of business as usual – we foresaw a ‘synchronised global slowdown’
In 2018-19 we suggested optimism over economic recovery was misplaced
2017
The great unwinding in China will cause its economy to slow down faster than expected
The pH Report forecasts slowing growth in China
2015
“Last year Paul Hodges sent me a report saying the oil price was about to plummet. He saw it falling to $50/bbl in the first half of this year”
Merryn Somerset Webb
Moneyweek, January 2015
In 2014-15, The pH Report accurately forecast the dramatic drop in oil prices from $115/bbl to $30/bbl
2011
“Western Baby Boomers are changing demand patterns, again”
The pH Report discusses the New Normal
2006
“Beware lending institutions bearing gifts”
Between 2006 and 2008 The pH Report was correctly warning that the sub prime bubble would burst and cause a global financial meltdown
