OPEC+ faces difficult decisions as Covid returns, recession risks rise, and oil prices crash
COP26 confirmed that the world is moving away from fossil fuels. OPEC’s high prices have made this move easier to afford by causing artificial shortages.
vaccines
Governments continue to fail the Covid challenge
Governments have failed to properly protect their populations from the pandemic. Some have actively encouraged it, the rest have simply been incompetent. Today, their failure to vaccinate the world means poorer countries are now acting as a petri-dish – enabling …
“Investing illusions can continue for a surprisingly long time”, Warren Buffett
Rising interest rates will continue weighing on equities. Since 2009, the Fed has focused on financial markets, hoping to impact jobs and growth.
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Investor mania is a classic sign of a late-stage bubble
Markets are starting to realise you can’t have a V-shaped recovery without rising inflation and bond yields
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Markets flirt with ‘new supercycle’ talk
If “everyone knows” a new bull market is now underway, who is left to buy?
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Markets reach their casino stage
Retail investors are busy topping up the “punch bowl” originally filled by central bankers
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Rising uncertainty hits market sentiment and prices
Our move to become “cautiously bearish” on the S&P 500 proved prescient.
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Biden’s plain-speaking will return markets to reality
Markets are starting to realise that Biden’s focus is on improving the lives of working and middle-class Americans, not new S&P records.
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Waiting for Biden
Hedge funds have been happily selling the US dollar and buying commodities for some time, creating the illusion that a strong economic rebound is underway.
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Now we have seen everything
An insurrection in the US capital, the formal election of the next President interrupted, and 5 people (including a law enforcement officer) dying in armed clashes. But as happens in financial bubbles, the markets sailed on untroubled.
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2021 unlikely to see a quick return to ‘business as usual’
Investors have been spoilt in recent years by the absence of risk. 2020 confirmed the ‘risk off’ mode as central banks ramped up their support. But will Wall Street continue in party mood, despite the growing problems on Main Street?
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OPEC and the Federal Reserve hold off reality for a (little) longer
“Fundamental reality will start to dawn, as it always does, in the end”
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China and Japan join Europe in deflation
“The rationale behind today’s euphoria seems based more on illusion than reality”
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“Everything is for the best, in this best of all possible worlds”
” Investors expect $trns more stimulus from Janet Yellen & Jay Powell”
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Yellen’s nomination for Treasury Secretary takes markets into peak “greed trade” mode
“Markets cycle between greed and fear”
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Paradigm shifts begin to impact financial markets
“Everyone hopes that the new vaccines will prove effective. But we doubt there will be a quick return to ‘business as usual’.
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