Russia

Bond markets reach “The End of the Beginning” as traders finally realise rates will be higher for longer

300+ years of Bank of England data shows that interest rates are typically inflation plus 2.5%. At today’s level, this would imply – US rates would be 3.7% + 2.5% = 6.2%: Japan would be 3.2% + 2.5% = 5.7%: Eurozone rates would be 5.3% + 2.5% = 7.8%; UK rates would be 6.7% + 2.5% = 9.2%

Bond markets reach “The End of the Beginning” as traders finally realise rates will be higher for longer Read More

Clean energy set to squeeze fossil fuel demand as ‘the electrification of everything’ continues

Portugal is showing the way. Despite 6 months of drought last year, 57% of its electricity came from renewables. And its clean energy focus means it is becoming “one of the cheapest markets in Europe”. CO2 emissions will also have reduced by 75% in 2030 versus 2021.

Clean energy set to squeeze fossil fuel demand as ‘the electrification of everything’ continues Read More

“Things get to a point where you have to do the right thing”, Lord McDonald, former head of the UK Foreign Office

The election’s timing could hardly be worse, with Johnson a caretaker premier. The UK should be working closely with the EU to combat the Russian threat to food and energy supplies. But instead, we may well see candidates attacking the EU to win constituency support

“Things get to a point where you have to do the right thing”, Lord McDonald, former head of the UK Foreign Office Read More

Markets will see plenty of rallies, but history suggests the real bottom will be at least 2 years away

The history of the 1929 and 2000 downturns suggests the real pain is yet to come. Housing markets look terribly over-valued around the world, as I noted last month. And US consumer sentiment is at all-time lows. So most company earnings seem set to fall, with more than 60% of US CEOs now expecting to see a recession.

Markets will see plenty of rallies, but history suggests the real bottom will be at least 2 years away Read More

Europe’s plastics companies need to step up the pace on recycling if they want to stay in business

Europe’s plastic industry is at a critical turning point. Profitability is falling as the recession bites. But it cannot just cut back and hunker down. Instead, it has to take a lead in building major new recycling capacity, as current markets and feedstocks start to disappear.

Europe’s plastics companies need to step up the pace on recycling if they want to stay in business Read More

Ukraine, pandemic, herald major market shifts

Energy and financial markets are exacerbating the risks ahead. Oil prices at current levels – as the chart confirms, they now account for more than 3% of global GDP – have historically led to recession as the chart shows. The reason is that consumers have to cut back on their discretionary spending, which drives economic growth, in order to heat their homes and travel to work and school. Today’s high levels of natural gas prices add to this risk.

Ukraine, pandemic, herald major market shifts Read More