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The blog’s 14th birthday – and the New Normal world it predicted has arrived

27 June 2021 28 June 2021

The blog has now been running for 14 years since the first post was written from Thailand at the end of June 2007. And quite a lot has happened since then: There was the 2008 financial crisis, one of the …

The blog’s 14th birthday – and the New Normal world it predicted has arrived Read More

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“Investing illusions can continue for a surprisingly long time”, Warren Buffett

1 March 2021 9 June 2021

Rising interest rates will continue weighing on equities. Since 2009, the Fed has focused on financial markets, hoping to impact jobs and growth.

Home / replacement economy

Investor mania is a classic sign of a late-stage bubble

22 February 2021 9 June 2021

Markets are starting to realise you can’t have a V-shaped recovery without rising inflation and bond yields

Home / replacement economy

Markets flirt with ‘new supercycle’ talk

15 February 2021 9 June 2021

If “everyone knows” a new bull market is now underway, who is left to buy?

Home / replacement economy

Markets reach their casino stage

8 February 2021 9 June 2021

Retail investors are busy topping up the “punch bowl” originally filled by central bankers

Home / replacement economy

Rising uncertainty hits market sentiment and prices

1 February 2021 9 June 2021

Our move to become “cautiously bearish” on the S&P 500 proved prescient.

Home / replacement economy

Biden’s plain-speaking will return markets to reality

25 January 2021 9 June 2021

Markets are starting to realise that Biden’s focus is on improving the lives of working and middle-class Americans, not new S&P records.

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Waiting for Biden

18 January 2021 9 June 2021

Hedge funds have been happily selling the US dollar and buying commodities for some time, creating the illusion that a strong economic rebound is underway.

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Now we have seen everything

11 January 2021 9 June 2021

An insurrection in the US capital, the formal election of the next President interrupted, and 5 people (including a law enforcement officer) dying in armed clashes. But as happens in financial bubbles, the markets sailed on untroubled.

Home / replacement economy

2021 unlikely to see a quick return to ‘business as usual’

4 January 2021 9 June 2021

Investors have been spoilt in recent years by the absence of risk. 2020 confirmed the ‘risk off’ mode as central banks ramped up their support. But will Wall Street continue in party mood, despite the growing problems on Main Street?

Home / replacement economy

OPEC and the Federal Reserve hold off reality for a (little) longer

21 December 2020 9 June 2021

“Fundamental reality will start to dawn, as it always does, in the end”

Home / replacement economy

China and Japan join Europe in deflation

14 December 2020 9 June 2021

“The rationale behind today’s euphoria seems based more on illusion than reality”

Home / replacement economy

“Everything is for the best, in this best of all possible worlds”

7 December 2020 9 June 2021

” Investors expect $trns more stimulus from Janet Yellen & Jay Powell”

Home / replacement economy

Yellen’s nomination for Treasury Secretary takes markets into peak “greed trade” mode

30 November 2020 9 June 2021

“Markets cycle between greed and fear”

Home / replacement economy

Paradigm shifts begin to impact financial markets

23 November 2020 9 June 2021

“Everyone hopes that the new vaccines will prove effective. But we doubt there will be a quick return to ‘business as usual’.

Home / replacement economy

Vaccine euphoria takes markets higher

16 November 2020 9 June 2021

“Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, But to be young was very heaven!” But this early excitement is unlikely to last once pandemic reality returns to the headlines

Home / replacement economy

After the Election, the Transition begins

9 November 2020 9 June 2021

There are 10 weeks till the Biden Presidency is due to start. But Donald Trump has refused to concede the race, and Senate control is still in doubt.

Home / replacement economy

What would 4 years of President Biden mean for financial markets?

2 November 2020 9 June 2021

The blog’s 14th birthday – and the New Normal world it predicted has arrived

“Investing illusions can continue for a surprisingly long time”, Warren Buffett

Rising interest rates will continue weighing on equities. Since 2009, the Fed has focused on financial markets, hoping to impact jobs and growth.

Investor mania is a classic sign of a late-stage bubble

Markets are starting to realise you can’t have a V-shaped recovery without rising inflation and bond yields

Markets flirt with ‘new supercycle’ talk

If “everyone knows” a new bull market is now underway, who is left to buy?

Markets reach their casino stage

Retail investors are busy topping up the “punch bowl” originally filled by central bankers

Rising uncertainty hits market sentiment and prices

Our move to become “cautiously bearish” on the S&P 500 proved prescient.

Biden’s plain-speaking will return markets to reality

Markets are starting to realise that Biden’s focus is on improving the lives of working and middle-class Americans, not new S&P records.

Waiting for Biden

Hedge funds have been happily selling the US dollar and buying commodities for some time, creating the illusion that a strong economic rebound is underway.

Now we have seen everything

An insurrection in the US capital, the formal election of the next President interrupted, and 5 people (including a law enforcement officer) dying in armed clashes. But as happens in financial bubbles, the markets sailed on untroubled.

2021 unlikely to see a quick return to ‘business as usual’

Investors have been spoilt in recent years by the absence of risk. 2020 confirmed the ‘risk off’ mode as central banks ramped up their support. But will Wall Street continue in party mood, despite the growing problems on Main Street?

OPEC and the Federal Reserve hold off reality for a (little) longer

“Fundamental reality will start to dawn, as it always does, in the end”

China and Japan join Europe in deflation

“The rationale behind today’s euphoria seems based more on illusion than reality”

“Everything is for the best, in this best of all possible worlds”

” Investors expect $trns more stimulus from Janet Yellen & Jay Powell”

Yellen’s nomination for Treasury Secretary takes markets into peak “greed trade” mode

“Markets cycle between greed and fear”

Paradigm shifts begin to impact financial markets

“Everyone hopes that the new vaccines will prove effective. But we doubt there will be a quick return to ‘business as usual’.

Vaccine euphoria takes markets higher

“Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, But to be young was very heaven!” But this early excitement is unlikely to last once pandemic reality returns to the headlines

After the Election, the Transition begins

There are 10 weeks till the Biden Presidency is due to start. But Donald Trump has refused to concede the race, and Senate control is still in doubt.

What would 4 years of President Biden mean for financial markets?

It seems likely that Joe Biden will win Tuesday’s Presidential election. We look at the potential impact on financial markets.

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replacement economy

Rising interest rates will continue weighing on equities. Since 2009, the Fed has focused on financial markets, hoping to impact jobs and growth.

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

Markets are starting to realise you can’t have a V-shaped recovery without rising inflation and bond yields

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

If “everyone knows” a new bull market is now underway, who is left to buy?

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

Retail investors are busy topping up the “punch bowl” originally filled by central bankers

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

Our move to become “cautiously bearish” on the S&P 500 proved prescient.

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

Markets are starting to realise that Biden’s focus is on improving the lives of working and middle-class Americans, not new S&P records.

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

Hedge funds have been happily selling the US dollar and buying commodities for some time, creating the illusion that a strong economic rebound is underway.

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

An insurrection in the US capital, the formal election of the next President interrupted, and 5 people (including a law enforcement officer) dying in armed clashes. But as happens in financial bubbles, the markets sailed on untroubled.

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

Investors have been spoilt in recent years by the absence of risk. 2020 confirmed the ‘risk off’ mode as central banks ramped up their support. But will Wall Street continue in party mood, despite the growing problems on Main Street?

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

“Fundamental reality will start to dawn, as it always does, in the end”

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

“The rationale behind today’s euphoria seems based more on illusion than reality”

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

” Investors expect $trns more stimulus from Janet Yellen & Jay Powell”

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

“Markets cycle between greed and fear”

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

“Everyone hopes that the new vaccines will prove effective. But we doubt there will be a quick return to ‘business as usual’.

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

“Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, But to be young was very heaven!” But this early excitement is unlikely to last once pandemic reality returns to the headlines

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

There are 10 weeks till the Biden Presidency is due to start. But Donald Trump has refused to concede the race, and Senate control is still in doubt.

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

It seems likely that Joe Biden will win Tuesday’s Presidential election. We look at the potential impact on financial markets.

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report $249 per year

Free trial offer $0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*

Subscribe now to New Normal Insight to read the full report
$249 per year

Free trial offer
$0 for 31 days*