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European and Asian buyers need to worry about whether US exports of transport fuels will continue in the autumn as the US midterm elections loom. The risk is that the White House won’t want the domestic market to go short to support exports.
Oil product shortages and price hikes seem inevitable as Gulf War moves into 6th month Read More
Two major wars are underway in Europe and the Arabian Gulf. The IEA continues to warn that they have already created “the largest energy supply disruption in history”. And now, it seems financial markets are waking up to the major risks created by the $2.6tn AI bubble
If Trump now walks away, he will leave Iran with control of Hormuz. But he will need a lot of ‘boots on the ground’ to invade a country of 93 million people.. As history confirms, air power alone is unlikely to win the war
Brent returns to $100/bbl, with 25% of global output now impacted by war Read More
Apple’s massive price rises highlight demand destruction in action. Suddenly, prices are going up, not down. The longer the wars and the AI bubble continue, the more prices and inflation will rise as supplies reduce
Smartphone sales collapse confirms War and AI-related demand destruction is now underway Read More
We are nearing crunch time for vital energy supplies of transport fuels and natural gas. Europe’s gas storage for the winter was just 28% full when refilling for the winter began in April. And around the world, energy supplies are getting tighter by the day.
Hormuz fighting, Russia’s fuel crisis, highlight risks to global fuel and gas supplies Read More
There are major upside risks on crude oil and product pricing as we head into H2. Inventories are very low, with no margin for error. And nobody knows whether the current US-Iran talks will actually end in a long-term agreement.
Major upside risks remain for oil and product pricing in H2 Read More
Financial markets think the oil crisis created by the Hormuz closure is over. But in reality, the risk of major shortages by Q4 is actually increasing. Oil inventories are near tank bottoms. And Hormuz transits are still only a fraction of the pre-invasion level.
Ras Laffan explosion, Iranian/US attacks, confirm restart risks for Hormuz plants Read More
The question is whether normal volumes of oil and gas will now start to flow again though the Strait? If they don’t, then an increasing number of major storage points will join Cushing in being at ‘tank bottoms’. And rationing will start to become inevitable, as the IEA warned in April.
Trump confirms oil reserves are down to just 4 weeks Read More
Oil companies are warning that “the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is going to be precariously low. What comes next is higher prices. We are getting closer to the bottom. July is likely the pain point when the market turns.”
Hormuz closure pressures global oil reserves and food supplies Read More
The World Bank, IMF, IEA and WTO have all warned that the crisis risks spiralling out of control:
“If shipping flows do not return to normal, continued rapid depletion of global oil inventories ahead of peak summer oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere would present increasing risks for fuel security, market conditions, and broader economic resilience.”
Global risks rise as Hormuz remains shut and supply chains start to buckle Read More
Financial markets are assuming the Strait will reopen this month, and free passage resume in June. If this is delayed, the risks of a global downturn to rival 2008 are rising.
Hopes rise for an early return to free passage in the Strait of Hormuz Read More
As with Covid in March 2020, a ‘wake-up call’ is now about to hit most Western governments. Critical oil and gas-based products are at increasing risk of becoming unaffordable, or unobtainable.
Oil and product prices set to be ‘higher for longer’ as Hormuz remains closed Read More
The IMF is warning that “Heightened macro risks and the prospect of tighter monetary policy could trigger a sudden repricing by financial markets—with much lower asset valuations, higher risk premia, more capital flight, and dollar appreciation”.
IMF warns on inflation and recession risks, as Iran war continues Read More
We are likely entering a very difficult few months. As the IEA warns, major changes in our lifestyles will be needed unless the war ends soon and the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
The biggest energy supply shock in history has reached the one-month mark Read More
The Strait of Hormuz has never been closed before. So we are in uncharted waters. And President Trump’s plan to provide naval escorts to reopen it, creates a new element of risk. What would happen if an Iranian drone hit a US warship?
Middle East turmoil highlights risks to energy and food supply – and Saudi’s water Read More
It would seem prudent to plan for further escalation of the military and trade wars in H2. Countries will likely continue to join trading blocs to counter Trump’s tariff war. And defence spend will further increase as the Middle East/Ukraine wars escalate
Middle East and Ukraine wars add to trade war risks for the global economy Read More
The real “October surprise” for markets might be to find out that central banks are powerless against today’s major geopolitical risks.