Helping you navigate the new normal
Food prices have stayed high due to the disruption caused by the war. They are unlikely to fall back quickly as the war continues and economic volatility intensifies.
As the World Food Programme warns, “High fertilizer prices could turn the current food affordability crisis into a food availability crisis, with production of maize, rice, soybean and wheat all falling in 2022.”
Food shortages and price rises are inevitable next year. So we all need to reduce the 25% of food now thrown away each year in the developed world. And in the developing world, we need to reduce the 25% lost due to logistics and storage failures. The less we waste, the more there will be to eat.
Russia’s invasion is a major wake-up call about the danger of assuming business will always be “as usual”. The window for investing in future growth is starting to close. As Hemingway warned in “Fiesta”, major changes (such as Net Zero) occur “gradually, then suddenly”.
It’s going to be a very difficult winter. Most of the world will be impacted as Europe bids up energy/food prices to keep its people warm and fed. And it would never have happened if policymakers had recognised the importance of geopolitics, energy markets and demographics.
The problems began with the supply chain crisis caused by the pandemic. Russia’s war in Ukraine then created a further challenge. And now we face the risk of famine as fertiliser costs become unaffordable. Central bankers at their annual Jackson Hole get-together should therefore focus on preparing for the arrival of a potential Fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse, in the shape of a major financial crisis.
Millions of people around the world are already having to cutback on buying food for their families due to today’s high prices. By wintertime, the risk is that they will have to choose between buying food or heating their homes.
Consumer sentiment is already at all-time lows. Rising energy, transport and food prices will likely soon push inflation above 10%, and interest/mortgage rates to 5%+, adding to the risk of a major and long-lasting downturn.
There are positives in all this, as the Green agenda will create new opportunities to replace those that are now disappearing. But for the moment, at least, the risks associated with a likely lengthy and deep recession are likely to dominate. Please be careful out there.
Essentially, the problem is a timebomb which is set to explode next winter unless governments work together to increase arable planting, establish emergency stocks, and subsidize fertilizer costs whilst gas prices remain at today’s record levels.