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Roman Emperors used to distract people with “bread and circuses”. Today, it seems Bitcoin is playing this role. The Tariff War is at major risk of repeating 1930’s Smoot Hawley Tariff Act. It introduced tariffs to “protect” the economy. And it led directly to the Great Depression.
We are facing a perfect storm of global food, energy and financial crises set off by the war in Ukraine. Analysts need to stop focusing on monetary policy and the inversion of the yield curve. They need to look out of the window and start dealing with the geopolitical reality of Putinflation.
Wall Street is focused on central banks’ response to the pandemic, whilst Main Street focuses on its actual impact.
Wall Street hopes for the best, whilst Main Street fears the worst Read More
The Hertz rental car bankruptcy in the US highlights the risks to the economy
Financial markets are treading water as they wait to see what happens next
Financial markets have sharply diverged from events in the real world
A month ago, we forecast that oil prices would go negative in Q2