The stock market bubble starts to burst
Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
demographic deficit
China’s ‘perpetual motion’ housing machine is starting to slow
Evergrande’s default will only be the first of many. Companies and countries that have “bet the ranch” on China’s “perpetual motion machine” need to urgently decide how to minimise their potential losses, whilst there is still time
Time for demographics to replace economics, as Evergrande’s default marks the end of the central banks’ debt bubble
It is time for the central banks to give up their outdated economic models, and focus instead on the science of demographics. Their efforts to create economic growth by ‘printing babies’ have simply created a debt bubble. This will likely now burst as Evergrande goes bankrupt.
Housing markets face long-term downturn as central banks abandon stimulus
Central banks thought they could overcome demographic pressures from ageing populations by printing bucket-loads of money at zero interest rates to support housing and stock markets. Now they are finally realising this was wishful thinking.
The blog’s 11th birthday – and a look forward to 2021
The blog has now been running for 11 years since the first post was written from Thailand at the end of June 2007. And quite a lot has happened since then: There was the 2008 financial crisis, one of the …
The blog’s 11th birthday – and a look forward to 2021 Read More
Budgeting for the Great Reckoning
One thing is certain about the 2017 – 2019 Budget period. ”Business as usual” is the least likely Scenario to occur. The IMF chart above highlights the key issue: for the past 5 years, all its forecasts of a return …