Helping you navigate the new normal since 2001
If Europe’s chemical industry disappears, the whole economy will be at risk. This week’s Antwerp Summit needs to focus on kick-starting its recovery.
Antwerp EU Summit holds key to Europe’s chemical industry future Read More
Chemicals contribute to 96% of manufactured goods. So if the Commission and governments don’t now provide major support at this time of crisis, the whole European economy will be at risk.
Tariffs, like interest rate changes, will take 12-18 months to work through the global economy. As always, the chemicals industry is providing early warning of what is around the corner in 2026.
President Trump’s tariffs change chemical industry business models Read More
As legendary investor Warren Buffett warned long ago, a lot of problems can be hidden during a boom. The risk is that we may now be about to relearn the message of his famous quote:
“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”
“When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.” Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan CEO Read More
Major paradigm shifts are never easy. Tesla’s example shows how even well-funded start-ups can lose the plot. But the benefits of robotaxis are very real for most people, if they can be realised.
Robotaxis take to the road in China, USA and now Europe Read More
Borrowing makes a lot of sense when interest rates and inflation are low. But now, both are returning to more normal levels. This will increase default risk, as companies and people with too much debt find it difficult to make their repayments.
Bond vigilantes start to push interest rates higher – and impact auto/housing markets Read More
Republicans are racing to finish the draft budget by Memorial Day at the end of the month. Bond investors can be forgiven for getting nervous about who is going to pay the bill for Trump’s tariff war and tax cuts.
President Trump’s tariff war and planned tax cuts reawaken the ‘bond vigilantes’ Read More
President Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ policy is hoping to turn back the clock on the Energy Transition. Oil market volatility is therefore inevitable, and will add to the volatility he has created in the economy and financial markets.
Oil prices fall out of their ‘triangle’ as Trump’s trade war risks global recession Read More
We are back in a world where geopolitics, not economics, drives decision-making. It is a world of shifting alliances. And so defence spending is set to be a key growth area for the future as Cold War 2.0 begins.
“The Dumbest Trade War in History. Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for no good reason.” Wall Street Journal editorial
Europe has been built through crisis since the end of World War 2. Today’s economic and political crises require a similar focus on reinvention.
Europe’s economy loses its “engine”, as France follows Germany into political turmoil Read More
Ageing BabyBoomers have been the main source of US population growth since 2005. So the need for global supply chains in disappearing, as the Boomers already own most of what they need. Trump’s tariff war means rapid and uncomfortable change now seems to lie ahead
The key is to rethink the business and become demand-led. And the good news is that companies are now starting to explore this option.
Chemicals industry starts to focus on Reinvention options at Berlin conference Read More
Chinese auto companies see Europe as a major opportunity. They are already investing in local plants to avoid import tariffs. European legacy companies such as VW need to move quickly to head off the threat. But their culture is slow-moving and cautious. They risk becoming Losers in today’s New Normal market.
VW’s troubles highlight challenges facing Europe’s auto industry Read More
The global auto market is going through major change. Gasoline/diesel cars seem set for major decline as the market transitions to EVs. In turn, business models are also set to change as the focus moves from “precision engineering” to “software”.
The two super-critical ‘dividends’ of the past 30 years are now reversing. The ‘demographic dividend’ of constant growth and low inflation created by the BabyBoom generation has ended, along with the ‘peace dividend’ created by the end of the Cold War in 1989
It’s our 17th birthday – and the world is looking very different from when we started Read More
We don’t often use the word “impossible” in the newsletter. But in this case, it is clearly impossible for GDP to continue to grow in the major Western economies.
Demographics are destiny for the global economy, as central banks start to realise Read More
The Ukraine war highlights how the real world can often be a very messy place. Issues such as geopolitics and demographics aren’t easy to understand. It can be hard to understand the detail of how key industries and markets are operating.
So it’s no surprise that most policymakers have preferred to stay in the world of theory.
The US is moving into recession as the Atlanta Fed chart confirms. Chemicals have been warning of this for some time. But policymakers and commentators remain in Denial about the economy. They prefer to focus on their computer models, and ignore the real world outside their window.
These are difficult times, and there is no guarantee that they may not get worse. But they also remind us of the critical need to move beyond the Age of Oil, and develop more sustainable energy resources for the future.
BP are aiming for their new joint venture in China to provide drivers with a fresh, fully-charged battery in less than a minute – and save 2 million tonnes of CO2
As the real estate market slows, China imports will reduce – setting off a chain reaction across the world
Xi aims to “bring order out of chaos” by bursting China’s property bubble Read More
The blog has now been running for 14 years since the first post was written from Thailand at the end of June 2007. And quite a lot has happened since then: There was the 2008 financial crisis, one of the
The blog’s 14th birthday – and the New Normal world it predicted has arrived Read More
China’s industrial heartland of Hubei (pop 59m) and its capital Wuhan (pop 11m) have now been locked down for nearly a month as a result of the coronavirus COVID-2019 epidemic. In total, more than half of the population (760m) are
Financial markets head for (another) train crash as coronavirus starts to impact Read More
Last month, our Hong Kong-based pH Report colleague, Daniël de Blocq van Scheltinga, warned of the “Possible development (epidemic?) of the Wuhan SARS like illness, and economic impact?” His current view of developments, and their likely impact, is as follows: Hubei,
Coronavirus disruptions make global recession almost certain Read More
Many indicators are now pointing towards a global downturn in the economy, along with paradigm shifts in demand patterns. CEOs need to urgently build resilient business models to survive and prosper in this New Normal world, as I discuss in my 2019