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Apple’s massive price rises highlight demand destruction in action. Suddenly, prices are going up, not down. The longer the wars and the AI bubble continue, the more prices and inflation will rise as supplies reduce
Smartphone sales collapse confirms War and AI-related demand destruction is now underway Read More
The history of energy crises suggests that today’s supply chain surge will likely be followed by recession. Buyers will suddenly start destocking again, as they realise consumer demand was actually slowing, whilst they were busy increasing inventory.
Today’s oil/natural gas price rises will likely repeat previous ‘boom and bust’ cycles. Companies therefore need to (a) prepare for the short-term ‘boom’ and (b) plan in detail for the potential recessionary ‘bust’ which will follow it.
Strait of Hormuz closure risks major economic impact Read More
The Middle East crisis highlights the need for Europe to rebuild its competitive edge. This will need new business models, to address today’s market needs. This will create major new opportunities for forward looking companies
EU’s new ‘One Europe, One Market’ strategy set to challenge China, USA Read More
Europeans are the only ones still operating on the basis of a rules-based international order. As France’s President Macron warned last week, we have to be much more realistic. We need “to protect our chemical industry, our industries – because they are being literally killed.”
INEOS bond price slide confirms chemicals are in Crisis Read More
2008 saw the US subprime crisis become the Great Financial Crisis. Now 2026 seems set to be the year when China hopes to solve its ‘subprime on steroids’ crisis. But its fundamental problem – the lack of babies – seems as far from solution as ever.
US automakers have been around a long time. It is too early to write them off. But Trump’s EV restrictions and their lack of robotaxi options suggests they risk running out of road sooner rather than later.
US automakers running out of road due to lack of EV and robotaxi options Read More
Yesterday’s world is fast disappearing. Future Winners will be those who develop the new business models needed today.
One door opens as another closes for the chemical industry Read More
Please join us for the next ACS Chemicals & Economy webinar next Thursday – Responding to Uncertainty
ACS Chemistry & the Economy webinar next Thursday – Responding to Uncertainty Read More
The good news is that change is finally starting to happen. Last week, the European Parliament voted to simplify reporting for most companies. It also accepted the need to balance its Green Deal ambitions with the need for Europe’s economy to remain competitive.
INEOS files anti-dumping suits as European chemicals crisis worsens Read More
As legendary investor Warren Buffett warned long ago, a lot of problems can be hidden during a boom. The risk is that we may now be about to relearn the message of his famous quote:
“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”
“When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.” Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan CEO Read More
It is hard to accept the IEA’s belief that petchems can drive future oil market growth. Demographics mean that global petchem demand is probably already close to peaking. And ethane is an increasingly competitive alternative to high-priced oil and naphtha
Wishful thinking prompts IEA’s belief that petchems can drive oil demand growth Read More
The chemical industry is critical for the entire European economy. As the European Commission itself has acknowledged, “the sector is vital to Europe’s economy, underpinning the manufacture of almost all goods”
As the EU Commission President warned earlier this month, “Battlelines for a new world order based on power are being drawn right now. Yes, Europe must fight.”
The chemicals industry is key to winning this fight. It is now time for governments to step up and support it.
The problems have been mounting for years. The difference today is that time is running out. New business models based on a return to local-for-local production are now essential. And the industry also needs to pivot to a more service-based and solution-oriented approach
Slowing demand and tariffs add to Europe’s chemical industry crisis Read More
Europe cannot allow its chemical industry to close. That would risk the collapse of its economy as the European Commission confirms. So we are likely heading back to the Trade Wars of the 1930s, with protectionism the probable outcome.
Transport is responsible for millions of jobs and 60% of oil demand. China’s auto market matters more than anywhere else. Unfortunately, it’s outlook seems very uncertain. It has the best Electric Vehicle technology in the world. But now, companies are in a major fight for survival
China’s auto industry seems set to be the next bubble Read More
Roman Emperors used to distract people with “bread and circuses”. Today, it seems Bitcoin is playing this role. The Tariff War is at major risk of repeating 1930’s Smoot Hawley Tariff Act. It introduced tariffs to “protect” the economy. And it led directly to the Great Depression.
Borrowing makes a lot of sense when interest rates and inflation are low. But now, both are returning to more normal levels. This will increase default risk, as companies and people with too much debt find it difficult to make their repayments.
Bond vigilantes start to push interest rates higher – and impact auto/housing markets Read More
President Trump’s Tariff War will soon lead to empty shelves at Wal-Mart, Target, Home Depot and many other stores this month. The famous saying “Well in May and go away” might be a prudent policy for investors.
The key issue for your Action Plan is to focus on demand. 3 key questions dominate. Will your customers survive the Tariff War? Will your suppliers survive the Tariff War? What can you do to help them survive?
Companies have less than 90 days to plan for the Trump 2.0 Tariff War Read More
The US economy is most at risk from the new policy. But President Reagan’s warning applies to every country trading with the US: “Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.”
President Trump’s trade war risks crashing the global economy Read More
European producers may end up seeing major benefits. Local demand is clearly set for major expansion as a result of the recent massive German and EU spending packages. And competition will move to a more ‘local-for-local’ basis as tariffs remove the basis for globalisation.
Trump’s tariffs may help ‘Make Europe Great Again!’ Read More
The Rules for doing business have to change. As NATO’s leader, Mark Rutte, has warned, Europe needs to “Raise defense spending or start learning Russian”
6 ‘Rules for Success’ as tariff wars and Europe’s Clean Industrial Deal begin Read More
Time is not on Europe’s side. Hopefully, this crisis will lead policymakers to take the urgent actions that are now essential.
Europe’s chemical industry, and its economy, faces existential challenge Read More
The collapse of Asia’s main currencies versus the US$ confirms that our world is increasingly dominated by known unknowns. We know what the key issues might be, but we can only guess at how they might turn out.
Demographic changes are transforming the nature of demand in all major industries. The highly-profitable middle market is disappearing. Companies and investors need to abandon ‘business as usual’ strategies and refocus on these major changes.
Oil traders have built a record bearish position in oil futures, as they expect consumption growth to stay weak. So it would be no surprise at all to see prices fall towards the $50/bbl level.
Chinese auto companies see Europe as a major opportunity. They are already investing in local plants to avoid import tariffs. European legacy companies such as VW need to move quickly to head off the threat. But their culture is slow-moving and cautious. They risk becoming Losers in today’s New Normal market.
VW’s troubles highlight challenges facing Europe’s auto industry Read More
The global auto market is going through major change. Gasoline/diesel cars seem set for major decline as the market transitions to EVs. In turn, business models are also set to change as the focus moves from “precision engineering” to “software”.
The critical test is now ahead – making it happen. Companies, investors and policymakers need to borrow Winston Churchill’s famous motto, “Action this Day”.
As Sir Jim Ratcliffe has highlighted, the penalty for doing nothing will be closure.
Europe and the USA are unlikely to handover the EV market to China.
The next few years will likely be a bumpy ride for anyone involved in the auto industry and its supply chains.
Car Wars begin as US, EU and Turkey impose duties on Chinese electric vehicles Read More
OPEC would have been better advised to keep prices low to reduce non-OPEC supply and support demand. Instead, they are likely to face some difficult pricing decisions later in the year, if global growth continues to slow.
OPEC starts to refocus on market share as demand growth weakens Read More
The world is now moving from today’s “Continuous Instability” into “Growing Disruption”. Real wars are already escalating in Europe and the Middle East. Trade wars are beginning. And Demand Patterns in key industries such as autos are starting to change very rapidly.
Future Winners in today’s New Normal world will be those companies that realise that the key question is no longer, “Do we have low-cost supply?” It is instead “Do we have a customer who is willing and able to buy from us”.
Risks rise for petrochemical producers as trade tensions mount Read More
Automakers have very little time – maybe as little as 5 years – to reposition themselves to meet today’s market needs. They need to develop an integrated EV supply chain. And they also need to follow Stellantis’ lead and go back to selling affordable cars costing €25k.
Western automakers face a race to catch up as Chinese EVs arrive Read More
These paradigm shifts are coming at the same time as the loss of the peace and demographic dividends. They are taking our world in a new direction.
The likely Winners will be those companies and investors who focus on becoming demand-led.
Gasoline/diesel cars are now less than 50% of European sales as EVs and hybrids surge Read More
The paradigm shifts are already starting to impact most businesses. China is also changing, and will no longer power global growth. So there are no ‘Business as Usual’ options for the future. Instead, companies have to develop new business models for today’s New Normal world.
Companies must be bold and transform, as paradigm shifts reshape the business world Read More
Chemicals are telling us that all the world’s major economies are in a major downturn. And the downturn is starting to accelerate as companies cut back spending and fire people. Real estate, autos and other key areas are already suffering along with the banking system.
Chemical industry results confirm major recession is underway Read More
As the photos from New York in 1900 and 1913 remind us, transitions happen very quickly once they get underway. One day, we are saying “it will never happen”. The next, we are telling our friends “I can’t understand why it took so long”. So it seems safe to assume that the auto industry will see major change in the next few years.
The next car you buy will probably be Electric, and you may not need to buy another Read More
The ‘digitalization of everything’ has transformed the global economy over the past 30 years. The rise of the internet is just one example. Now electrification is set to have a similar impact, starting with the world’s largest manufacturing industry. Fasten your seatbelts for the ride!
Global auto fleet goes electric as “the electrification of everything” begins Read More
Winners and Losers are becoming inevitable in the world’s largest manufacturing industry. Companies and their suppliers have to manage fixed costs to survive the recession. But they also have to invest in EV/AVs if they want to have a business in the future.
The seeming genius of many private equity funds in recent years has been based on this ability to borrow at cheap rates during the ‘up’ part of the business cycle. Now we are heading into the ‘down’ cycle. And the central banks have abandoned Bernanke Theory and are back to worrying about inflation. So today’s excess leverage means many over-leveraged companies will go bust.
These are difficult times, and there is no guarantee that they may not get worse. But they also remind us of the critical need to move beyond the Age of Oil, and develop more sustainable energy resources for the future.
Automakers are ahead of the game in terms of strategic planning. They soon realised the move to EVs meant their traditional business model, based on proprietary engine technology, would inevitably become obsolete. And so they quickly realised they need to pivot to focus on AVs and become software-driven. The rest of us need to catch up.
Automakers, governments, start to prepare for the launch of Autonomous Vehicles Read More
Evergrande’s default will only be the first of many. Companies and countries that have “bet the ranch” on China’s “perpetual motion machine” need to urgently decide how to minimise their potential losses, whilst there is still time
China’s ‘perpetual motion’ housing machine is starting to slow Read More
The plastics industry as we know it today, may well start to move into an endgame as it is squeezed from both ends of the value chain.
Plastics industry feedstocks at risk from the rise of Electric Vehicles Read More
The implications of the rise in EV sales go well beyond the auto and oil markets, with petrochemicals likely to be next in line for disruption. This is why the surge in EV sales up the S-curve of adoption has to be my Chart of the Year.
The new business models, based on using locally-produced recycled plastic feedstocks, are a ‘once=-in-a-lifetime’ opportunity to create growth for decades to come.
Recession may also burst today’s asset price bubbles in stock markets and housing prices – and even in more obscure assets such as art markets.
‘Watch out below!’ as supply chain chaos comes to an end Read More
The transformation period is a wonderful opportunity to reset the clock and start a new race.
Industry now needs to step up, if Net Zero is to be achieved Read More
The Federal Reserve can’t control the fallout from the bursting of China’s ‘subprime on steroids’ real estate bubble
The Fed’s stock market bubble is at risk as China bursts its real estate bubble Read More
As the real estate market slows, China imports will reduce – setting off a chain reaction across the world
Xi aims to “bring order out of chaos” by bursting China’s property bubble Read More
Much of the way the world currently works depends on uninterrupted and elevated Chinese growth.
The end of China’s real estate bubble will impact global supply chains, exports and growth Read More
Autos are going through a genuine transformation, just as a caterpillar transforms via the chrysalis stage into a butterfly
Businesses set for transformation as supply chain chaos combines with Net Zero targets Read More
Flooding in China and Europe, record temperatures in the USA, wild fires – all these are signs that climate change is accelerating. After all, the world has gone from 2.5bn people in 1950 to 7.9bn today. That must have an
Auto industry provides a model for the transition to Net Zero Read More
Wall Street is focused on central banks’ response to the pandemic, whilst Main Street focuses on its actual impact.
Wall Street hopes for the best, whilst Main Street fears the worst Read More
The Hertz rental car bankruptcy in the US highlights the risks to the economy
Financial markets are treading water as they wait to see what happens next
Financial markets have sharply diverged from events in the real world
A month ago, we forecast that oil prices would go negative in Q2
Markets are being driven by speculators funded by the central banks, rather than long-term investors.
Tariffs are not a “silver bullet” and cannot solve the two key issues facing the US auto industry
Trump’s auto trade war adds to US demographic and debt headwinds Read More
“By Monday, the third straight day of flooding, the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey had left much of the region underwater, and the city of Houston looked like a sea dotted by small islands. ’This event is unprecedented,’ the National Weather Service tweeted. ‘All impacts are unknown and beyond anything experienced.’” This summary from the New […]
Hurricane Harvey: lack of insurance will hit Houston’s recovery Read More
China is now developing a used car market for the first time in its history. This means the end of global auto sales growth, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog China’s car market has been key to the recovery in global auto sales growth since […]