Helping you navigate the new normal
The paradigm shifts are already starting to impact most businesses. China is also changing, and will no longer power global growth. So there are no ‘Business as Usual’ options for the future. Instead, companies have to develop new business models for today’s New Normal world.
Chemicals are telling us that all the world’s major economies are in a major downturn. And the downturn is starting to accelerate as companies cut back spending and fire people. Real estate, autos and other key areas are already suffering along with the banking system.
As the photos from New York in 1900 and 1913 remind us, transitions happen very quickly once they get underway. One day, we are saying “it will never happen”. The next, we are telling our friends “I can’t understand why it took so long”. So it seems safe to assume that the auto industry will see major change in the next few years.
The ‘digitalization of everything’ has transformed the global economy over the past 30 years. The rise of the internet is just one example. Now electrification is set to have a similar impact, starting with the world’s largest manufacturing industry. Fasten your seatbelts for the ride!
Winners and Losers are becoming inevitable in the world’s largest manufacturing industry. Companies and their suppliers have to manage fixed costs to survive the recession. But they also have to invest in EV/AVs if they want to have a business in the future.
The seeming genius of many private equity funds in recent years has been based on this ability to borrow at cheap rates during the ‘up’ part of the business cycle. Now we are heading into the ‘down’ cycle. And the central banks have abandoned Bernanke Theory and are back to worrying about inflation. So today’s excess leverage means many over-leveraged companies will go bust.
These are difficult times, and there is no guarantee that they may not get worse. But they also remind us of the critical need to move beyond the Age of Oil, and develop more sustainable energy resources for the future.
Automakers are ahead of the game in terms of strategic planning. They soon realised the move to EVs meant their traditional business model, based on proprietary engine technology, would inevitably become obsolete. And so they quickly realised they need to pivot to focus on AVs and become software-driven. The rest of us need to catch up.
Evergrande’s default will only be the first of many. Companies and countries that have “bet the ranch” on China’s “perpetual motion machine” need to urgently decide how to minimise their potential losses, whilst there is still time
The plastics industry as we know it today, may well start to move into an endgame as it is squeezed from both ends of the value chain.
The implications of the rise in EV sales go well beyond the auto and oil markets, with petrochemicals likely to be next in line for disruption. This is why the surge in EV sales up the S-curve of adoption has to be my Chart of the Year.
The new business models, based on using locally-produced recycled plastic feedstocks, are a ‘once=-in-a-lifetime’ opportunity to create growth for decades to come.
Recession may also burst today’s asset price bubbles in stock markets and housing prices – and even in more obscure assets such as art markets.
The transformation period is a wonderful opportunity to reset the clock and start a new race.
The Federal Reserve can’t control the fallout from the bursting of China’s ‘subprime on steroids’ real estate bubble
As the real estate market slows, China imports will reduce – setting off a chain reaction across the world
Much of the way the world currently works depends on uninterrupted and elevated Chinese growth.
Autos are going through a genuine transformation, just as a caterpillar transforms via the chrysalis stage into a butterfly
Flooding in China and Europe, record temperatures in the USA, wild fires – all these are signs that climate change is accelerating. After all, the world has gone from 2.5bn people in 1950 to 7.9bn today. That must have an …
Auto industry provides a model for the transition to Net Zero Read More
Wall Street is focused on central banks’ response to the pandemic, whilst Main Street focuses on its actual impact.
The Hertz rental car bankruptcy in the US highlights the risks to the economy
Financial markets are treading water as they wait to see what happens next
Financial markets have sharply diverged from events in the real world
A month ago, we forecast that oil prices would go negative in Q2
Markets are being driven by speculators funded by the central banks, rather than long-term investors.
Tariffs are not a “silver bullet” and cannot solve the two key issues facing the US auto industry
“By Monday, the third straight day of flooding, the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey had left much of the region underwater, and the city of Houston looked like a sea dotted by small islands. ’This event is unprecedented,’ the National Weather Service tweeted. ‘All impacts are unknown and beyond anything experienced.’” This summary from the New […]
China is now developing a used car market for the first time in its history. This means the end of global auto sales growth, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog China’s car market has been key to the recovery in global auto sales growth since […]
