Oil prices have tumbled back to June levels, whilst the call option favourite Tesla has seen its price crash 26%. And the eurozone moved into deflation.
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Global Capacity Utilisation is only back to the March level at 77%, well below December 2019’s 82,1% before the recession began.
Apple’s SE model launch means it is now competing with Android-based Chinese competitors – probably not good news for its future profits
US stock markets are riding high, with valuations in the 95th percentile since 1881. But the US economy is in trouble, with growth expected to be in the 4th percentile.
Markets ignored our forecast of a Donald Trump win in 2016. And now they are ignoring the risk that he might not accept the result, if he loses in November.
Global chemical data for June shows demand remains weak.
Investors don’t like to ask too many questions when markets are in their ‘blow-off’ phase. And it’s too late to ask them when the bankruptcies start.
Wall Street is focused on central banks’ response to the pandemic, whilst Main Street focuses on its actual impact.
Financial markets are treading water as they wait to see what happens next
Financial markets have sharply diverged from events in the real world
A month ago, we forecast that oil prices would go negative in Q2
Wishful thinking remains the dominant feature in oil markets, as in our other key areas of the global economy
April will be the cruellest month, as the Covid-19 virus starts to have its full impact on health and the economy.
Volatility has spiked this month, as always happens when markets go through a period of major change. Time seems to speed up, as old certainties are discarded, and everyone tries to work out where we are headed next.