Time to look forward, not back, for European petrochemicals
The European petrochemicals industry is in crisis. Operating rates dropped below 85% in H2 2008, and have never recovered. Now there is a danger that it faces death by a thousand cuts. …
US Fed governor agrees it helped fund Alibaba bubble
The last days of a bubble are always the most fun. And Alibaba’s New York market debut last Friday will be one of those to treasure and report to the grandchildren in decades to…
Ageing consumers from Chile to China need affordable, quality goods and services
The New Old 55+ generation is the key demographic for future consumer spending. Their numbers are rising rapidly as global life expectancy has risen by 50% since 1950. Over the same period, global fertility…
Chemical production continues to slow across most regions
Chemical production is currently the best leading indicator for the wider economy, as financial markets have lost their power of price discovery due to the impact of central bank stimulus. The above chart, based…
Sinopec & China arrive in New Normal of low growth and profit
Sinopec is China’s largest chemical producer and its second largest refiner. The blog’s annual review of its published Results confirms its uniqueness in global markets. The numbers confirm that it remains focused on increasing production,…
US ethylene outages boost European and Asian PE producers
Polymer traders must be already counting their end-of-year bonuses, as the value of the US$ rises whilst crude oil prices weaken. The biggest bonuses will likely go to polyethylene (PE) traders competing with US…
The real challenge is a lack of challenge
We all remember the Hans Christian Andersen story about the Emperor with no clothes. His subjects were told that only those who were stupid or incompetent would be unable to see his wonderful new suit. Of course, nobody…
Russian downturn causes GM, Ford U-turn; EU slows despite discounts
August is a holiday month for Europe’s statisticians. So we had to wait until yesterday for a combined summary of July and August’s EU auto sales. As the chart shows, they indicate a new slowdown is…
Shiller warning suggests S&P 500 bubble coming to an end
Nobel Prizewinner Prof Robert Shiller correctly forecast the dot-com collapse in 2000, and the 2008 financial Crisis, using the chart above. Now he is warning we risk a 3rd collapse. The problem is that Western…