The China middle class myth moves us closer to protectionism
Believing conventional wisdom can destroy your profits. One example is playing out in the oil market before our eyes. Another example is the myth that China was about to become middle class. Yet income levels always made this impossible:…
Gulf countries risk losing US defence shield if oil prices stay high
I imagine a version of this chart has been keeping ministers awake at nights in Riyadh and the other Gulf Co-Operation Countries (GCC) in recent months. “How did we ever allow Canada to…
Why have oil prices fallen? Will China’s growth recover in 2015?
Chemistry & the Economy: 2014 Year-End Review Some excellent questions have already been submitted for my year-end webinar tomorrow with the American Chemical Society. Why have oil prices fallen? Will China’s growth…
OPEC’s high prices have accelerated move away from oil to gas
Does OPEC have a future? Or has it already disappeared as an effective force in oil markets? I am not the only one now asking this question. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi asked the…
Blog readers were prepared for this headline on 18 August
Above is today’s front-page headline from the Financial Times. As readers will remember, I launched a series of major posts in the blog on 18 August, forecasting a collapse of oil prices to “$70/bbl, and probably…
Financial players have destroyed price discovery in oil markets
Oil prices should be set by the balance of supply and demand. But as the chart shows, oil markets have instead become dominated by financial players, as pension and hedge funds decided to buy oil as…
Year-End ‘Chemistry & the Economy’ webinar on Thursday
Chemistry & the Economy: 2014 Year-End Review Central banks have destroyed the price discovery mechanism in oil and chemical markets, and in financial markets, since the Crisis began in 2009: They pumped out…
Asian markets panic as polyethylene glut begins to develop
The word “panic” crept in to ICIS chemical market news reports this week, as its pricing specialists surveyed the Asian market. Polyethylene (PE) was particularly highlighted, with headlines such as: China PE tumbles $30-80/tonne on…
Major investors worry about markets, focus on demographics
I had a breakfast meeting yesterday with the investment head of one of the world’s major asset managers. He wanted to understand more about our Great Unwinding concept, and our correct mid-August…