Deflation risks rise as OPEC aims to regain market share and cut oil prices
Oil market developments need very careful attention. If prices do now fall below $50/bbl, then central banks will likely rush to make major cuts in interest rates. And that will make deflation…
China’s economy risks heading into recession as its Producer Prices enter deflation
China’s problems are spreading to the rest of the world. Not only is it exporting deflation, as its Producer Prices fall. But also, and understandably, consumer countries are introducing trade barriers to…
OPEC+ risks losing control of oil markets
Oil traders have built a record bearish position in oil futures, as they expect consumption growth to stay weak. So it would be no surprise at all to see prices fall towards…
VW’s troubles highlight challenges facing Europe’s auto industry
Chinese auto companies see Europe as a major opportunity. They are already investing in local plants to avoid import tariffs. European legacy companies such as VW need to move quickly to head…
Gasoline/diesel auto sales have moved into long-term decline, as Electric Vehicles see exponential growth
The global auto market is going through major change. Gasoline/diesel cars seem set for major decline as the market transitions to EVs. In turn, business models are also set to change as the…
Apple loses its Top 5 position in China as price competition intensifies
Smartphones highlight major shifts underway in consumer markets. The cost of living crisis means people are only buying what they “need”, and cutting back on what they only “want”. And today’s ageing…
Oil prices head into a warning triangle, again
OPEC+ countries have been playing the geopolitical card for the past 2 years. But their output cuts have allowed US producers to gain market share, with production up 1.2mbd. The hurricane season…
European voters rally to the centre as external threats increase
Europe faces major geopolitical threats. In the East, the EU faces an existential challenges from Russia’s Ukraine invasion and its “no limits” partnership with China. In the West, there is…
Geopolitics now trumps economics
The critical test is now ahead – making it happen. Companies, investors and policymakers need to borrow Winston Churchill’s famous motto, “Action this Day”.
As Sir Jim Ratcliffe has highlighted, the penalty for…