Bond markets reach “The End of the Beginning” as traders finally realise rates will be higher for longer
300+ years of Bank of England data shows that interest rates are typically inflation plus 2.5%. At today’s level, this would imply – US rates would be 3.7% + 2.5% = 6.2%:…
Food prices set for further rise as energy and fertilizer costs increase
Economists might like to believe that inflation is somehow a monetary phenomenon. But as we are all likely to learn to our cost over the winter, food and energy prices are critical…
Energy markets could be heading towards a new crisis
It’s too soon to talk of an actual energy crisis. But as the charts showing Brent oil and European natural gas prices confirm, it is certainly time to start planning for the…
US interest rate rises start to threaten the housing market bubble
Most Americans can’t qualify for a mortgage today with prices and interest rates at generation-highs. Yet housing starts average a post-2007 record of 1.5m/month. Logic therefore suggests the US housing market is…
Asia’s debt crisis edges nearer, as Japan’s interest rates rise and China’s property bubble bursts
Bubbles are great fun while they last. But they are much less fun when they burst. For the past 20 years, central bank stimulus has created some of the largest bubbles ever…
Investors should pack a copy of the Old Testament for the beach
Investors need to prepare for much slower, or maybe even negative growth and deflation. Optimistically, one can hope this paradigm shift will be good news for Net Zero investments. But it also…
Smartphone decline highlights the end of the profitable BabyBoomer-led ‘middle-market’
The downturn in the global smartphone market highlights the need for companies to focus on the Value segment and Services as the Middle Market disappears. iPhones are now 49% of the booming…
Central banks leak $bns as losses from their stimulus policies start to soar
The losses sitting on central bank balance sheets are starting to soar to eye-watering levels. The US Federal Reserve is sitting on a “mark-to-market” loss of $911bn. The UK taxpayer has already…
Europe’s chemicals market highlights move into recession, and risk of future deflation
The chemical industry is now starting to warn us of a new risk. Europe is already suffering from a cost of living crisis. And people simply can’t afford to pay even higher…