New Normal Media Centre

Research: How the Pros Do It — Geo Chen and Paul Hodges
RealVision | 28 Feb 2024
Global Industrial Slowdown Could Drag Down U.S. Economy In 2024, Argues Paul Hodges
Blockworks Macro | 13 Jan 2024

New Normal FT Letters

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New Normal in the News 

2024

April
March

PODCAST: Think Tank: Why stock markets soar while chemicals slump

PODCAST: Think Tank: Indorama, BASF strategy shift could signal end of integrated sites

February

PODCAST: Think Tank: Antwerp Declaration shows chemicals CEOs mean business

PODCAST: Think Tank: More trade barriers, regional isolation could protect Europe, US chemicals

PODCAST: Think Tank: Saudi chemical producers under pressure as ethane price soars

Energy, petrochemical, fertilizer sectors face 5 key risks in 2024

January

PODCAST: Think Tank: Distributors face higher costs, margin pressure from Red Sea disruption

Continuous progress

PODCAST: What dangers lurk in the year of the dragon?  

PODCAST: Think Tank: How AI can help navigate Suez, Panama crises

Time for a new business approach

PODCAST: Think Tank: Expect no end to downturn in 2024 as poor demand, overcapacity become entrenched  

2023

December

PODCAST: Think Tank: Catalysts will enable decarbonized chemical supply chains  
COMMENT: Where is chemical recycling on its path to circularity? Plastics Europe
PODCAST: Think Tank: Capacity equal to Europe’s entire 2023 ethylene demand could close by 2028  

RV Real Vision Daily Briefing 5 December 2023 with Paul Hodges
Daily Briefing: A New Digital Gold Rush?
Paul Hodges | Real Vision (5 Dec 2023)
November

BASF Set to Operate Europe’s First Electric Chemicals Furnace Bloomberg 

PODCAST: Think Tank: AI can help companies tackle biggest pain points 

November

PODCAST: Think Tank: New ‘supermajors’ will dominate chemical industry 
PODCAST: Think Tank: China exports price deflation 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Huge pressure to close petrochemical plants as global overcapacity grows 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Era of rapid change heralds winners and losers; trough conditions to persist 

October

PODCAST: Think Tank: Europe faces tough 2023/4, must think long-term 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Chemicals needs leaders like Steve Jobs to reinvent industry 

September

Companies must be bold and transform, as paradigm shifts reshape the business world 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Industry contends with fundamental shift to global economy 


Is the Fed back in play?
Paul Hodges | Real Vision Finance (6 Sep 2023)

August

Investors should pack a copy of the Old Testament for the beach Financial Times letter 
PODCAST: Think Tank: What China’s economic malaise means for chemicals 

July

PODCAST: Think Tank: Chemical industry must wake up to climate emergency 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Companies need to take bold steps to thrive in Europe 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Falling chemical prices signal switch from inflation to deflation 

June

It Feels Like ‘Lehman II’ in This Crucial Industry Bloomberg 
It Feels Like ‘Lehman II’ in This Crucial Industry Washington Post 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Europe PE, PP panic confirms persistent demand collapse  
Richard Carter joins Itero Advisory Panel 
PODCAST: Think Tank: China, energy transition spur volatility in oil, chemical markets
 
We Need to Talk About China, Again
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: PFA conflict flags existential questions for chemical industry
 

May

PODCAST: Think Tank: Demand flops in chemical markets around the world, gloomy outlook  
“Houston, we have a problem”
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Distributors no longer so insulated from economic pressures
 

April

PODCAST: Think Tank: Chemical recycling under threat, needs more investment 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Markets plagued by low demand; focus on future bright spots
 
Recycling can secure the future for US chemical companies
 

March

PODCAST: Paul Hodges – There’s No Substitute for Judgment My worst Investment ever 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Gas surcharges start to fall away as European prices collapse
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Plunging shipping rates point to normalising global logistics, Europe under pressure
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: US bank run heralds tougher lending conditions
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: China adds record-breaking chemicals capacity in 2023, global markets wary
 


When’s the Next Shoe Going to Drop? Paul Hodges | Real Vision Finance (24 Mar 2023)

February

PODCAST: Think Tank: Chemicals to benefit as global “Green War” gets underway 
SOAS PODCAST Will China get old before it gets rich?
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: China economy, chemicals fail to bounce back yet
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Start of year chemicals uptick may be a false dawn
 

January

PODCAST: Think Tank: EU chemicals may lose free carbon credits, double costs, under CBAM legislation 
PODCAST: The economic importance of chemicals
BLK Capital Management interview 
Economy drives need for change
 

2022

December

Onde ficarão as próximas plantas de PE e PP? Plásticos em Revista 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Europe chemicals suffer lowest operating rate since 2008, global industry in doldrums
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Ban on Russian refined products will hurt Europe more than oil restrictions

The Car Market Is Crashing Paul Hodges | Blockworks (1 Dec 2022)

November

PODCAST: Think Tank: High gas prices, shortages here to stay, Europe must adapt 
PODCAST: Think Tank: China demand outlook poor on shutdowns, pandemic policies
 
How to get out of the perfect storm?
 
The Chemicals Market Is Bearish – Stupendously Bearish Paul Hodges, Blockworks (4 Nov 2022)

October

PODCAST: Think Tank: High gas prices, shortages here to stay, Europe must adapt 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Crisis worst in living memory, plan for a more complex world
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Sustainability dominates agenda but industry progress slow
 
Scenario planning key amid volatility
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Europe petrochemicals face ‘winter of discontent’

September

PODCAST: Think Tank: Demand collapsing in auto, construction end use markets 
Russian Gas Shortage Could Have Deep Reverberations
Interview with GLG 
PODCAST: In the lion’s den: The effects of geopolitics on the financial markets
Interview with Sawchuk Wealth 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Chemical distributors less exposed to downturn, still face tough Q4 in Europe
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Sliding fundamentals could reshape global chemicals production

August

PODCAST: Think Tank: Chemicals must stay on low carbon track despite current crises 
Facing up to paradigm shifts – Premium interview
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Global chemical prices collapse, Europe prepares for dry summer, tough winter
 
Haja resistência ao impacto – Plástico em revista interview
 
Real Vision: Paul Hodges Believes Markets Will Refocus on Price Discovery

RealVision My Life in 4 Trades: Paul Hodges Believes Markets Will Refocus on Price Discovery
Paul Hodges believes markets will refocus on price discovery
RealVision: My Life in 4 Trades (3 Aug 2022)

SOAS PODCAST: China’s problems with faltering growth and rising debt
PODCAST: Think Tank: Covestro profit warning, chemical price slump highlight H2 risks

July

PODCAST: Think Tank: Messy supply chains complicate Europe gas rationing plans
PODCAST: Think Tank: Gas rationing for chemicals, fertilizers likely in Europe this winter 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Chems sector resilient in Q2 but conditions forecast bleak for H2

June

PODCAST: Think Tank: Europe, German chemicals face gas supply crisis 
PODCAST: Think Tank: INEOS project halt highlights Europe’s plight
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Chaotic fertilizer markets, weather events, could worsen food crisis

Paul Hodges Says Investors Should Stop Fed-Watching Real Vision podcast

RealVision interview: Paul Hodges Says Investors Should Stop Fed Watching
Paul Hodges Says Investors Should Stop Fed-Watching
RealVision: The Next Big Trades (7 Jun 2022)
May

PODCAST: Think Tank: Europe propylene market drowns, faltering demand signals broader economic woes 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Europe chemicals could face short periods of gas rationing this winter
 
“Be Bloody Careful” As Recession Hits Europe and China RealVision (26 May 2022)

April

This major industry may be signalling a recession Yahoo Finance 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Recycling and circular value chains could drive local pricing of plastics
 
Ukraine, pandemic, herald market shifts

March

A globalização esvaziou – Plástico em revista interview 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Companies face a new dawn as low-inflation era comes to an end
 
PODCAST: Why petrochemicals won’t save oil demand
Interview with Westwood Global Energy 
VIDEO/PODCAST: Russia and Ukraine: The big picture
Interview with Sawchuk Wealth 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Oil price shock will hit margins, demand and economy
 
Viewpoint: Sustainable business decisions
The Chemical Engineer 
PODCAST: Think Tank: How chemical markets are reacting to Russian invasion of Ukraine

February

Business not as usual Chemistry & Industry 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Ukraine conflict could hurt margins as costs soar amid falling demand
 
Global Plastic Supply Chain Investors Line-up at First Close of Infinity Recycling’s Circular Plastics Fund
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Chemicals demand growth detaches from GDP, gets complicated
 
In the Lion’s Den
Interview with Sawchuk Wealth 
The end of Peak China
Asian Affairs

January

Sostenibilita ed economia circolare come “cura” contro gli effetti della pandemia In Italian 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Stock market bubble may be about to burst
 
O desmonte do passado – Plástico em revista interview
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Europe, US chemicals face China dominance in race for low carbon technology
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Supply chain crisis delaying inevitable downturn
 
Plastics industry feedstocks at risk from the rise of Electric Vehicles
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: More gas price volatility likely in winter 2022
 

2021

Dec
PODCAST: Think Tank: Economy, chemicals may switch from inflation to deflation in 2022
 
Using chemistry to avert the tragedy of the oceans
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: As China moves to self-sufficiency, expect scramble for global market share

Nov
PODCAST: Think Tank: Omicron risks further supply chain and demand disruption
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: EPCA president Hartwig Michels on the low carbon challenge and supply chain, logistics crisis
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Chemicals indicators point to global slowdown amid margin contraction
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: COP26 highlights how chemicals must ‘wake up and smell the coffee’

Oct
PODCAST: Think Tank: China property bubble burst could trigger global recession
 
China in context: The exuberant lifestyle of Evergrande’s billionaire boss
SOAS podcast 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Industry must banish inertia, reinvent itself for a low carbon future
 
A look back from 2030 at the success of COP26

Sep
PODCAST: Think Tank: Demand, supply chains face disruption from new China policy
 
An end to the China bubble would risk a Minsky moment
Financial Times letter 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Soaring energy prices disrupt fertilizer, chemical markets
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Evergrande debt crisis signals major reset for China
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: American Chemistry Council’s Kevin Swift reflects on Storm Ida and a career in chemicals

Aug
PODCAST: Think Tank: chemicals enjoy highest operating rate in 30 years despite pandemic, logistics disruption
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Logistics crisis could last for years, force more regional supply chains
 
Pandemic accelerates business transformation
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Fear of shortages may fuel inventory building; expect H2 destocking

Jul
Chemical Makers Are Booming as People Buy Ever More Stuff Bloomberg analysis 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Mushrooming carbon costs will push Europe chemicals to transform
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Chemical markets may have peaked, expect H2 slowdown
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Europe’s low carbon drive could revolutionise chemicals

Jun
PODCAST: Think Tank: Can industry rise to the challenge of a low carbon future?
 
Sustainability Gaining Momentum in Auto Markets Globally
Real Vision video interview 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Chemicals need governments to take more action on climate
 
Shell v Dutch Friends of the Earth, June 2021
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Don’t ignore demographics – they drive demand

May
PODCAST: Think Tank: Plunging chemical prices could signal return to ‘normal’
 
PODCAST: Think Tank: Petrochemical price inflation could switch to deflation
 
PODCAST: As panic buying subsides, where next?
 
Transforming Supply Chains
The Chemical Engineer interview

Apr
PODCAST: Joe Biden’s earth summit brings tipping point for industry 
PODCAST: Record-breaking chemical margins as logistics, supply crisis persists
 
PODCAST: Pandemic has broken link to GDP for chemicals demand, new models required
 
Shift in life expectancy puts a focus on retraining
Financial Times letter

Mar
PODCAST: Demand pushed in different directions by vaccine roll-out, supply chain disruption
 
PODCAST: Hydrogen could hold the key to low carbon chemicals
 
Chemicals on the threshold of a dramatic transformation
CHEManager interview 
PODCAST: Markets distorted by logistics and panic buying, but underlying optimism seen for 2021
 
PODCAST: Ramp up of recycling held back by technology, poor collection, inertia

Feb
Weak Demand and the Return to “Normal” Illusion — Live with Paul Hodges
Real Vision interview 
PODCAST: US Gulf Coast storm outages risk global supply crunch
 
PODCAST: Gulf petrochemicals special focus with GPCA secretary general Dr. Abdulwahab Al-Sadoun
 
Um novo tempo In Portuguese 
PODCAST: Drive to lower carbon means no new steam crackers after 2030

Jan
PODCAST: Chemical sector must step up circular investments from tens to hundreds of millions
 
L’Industria del PET va online In Italian 
PODCAST: Europe chemicals face €1bn 2021 carbon bill as global action intensifies
 
PODCAST: Biden ushers in global era of low carbon
 
Brexit’s Red Tape Is Just Beginning New York Times 
Look for Winners and Losers in 2021
 
PODCAST: Faltering China chemicals signal caution for 2021
 

2020 

Dec
PODCAST: Brexit like a slow puncture as investment gets diverted elsewhere
 
PODCAST: Economists more optimistic, but logistics risks a threat to chemicals
 
PODCAST: ExxonMobil write downs signal end of fossil fuels, need for new thinking in chemicals

Nov
PODCAST: New Asia trade bloc is good news for China chemicals, disaster for US
 
PODCAST: Chemical market disruptions will persist, despite vaccine progress
 
PODCAST: US election – Trump versus Biden on chemicals

Oct
Real Vision: The Global Macro Litmus Test — Live With Paul Hodges
 
PODCAST: China’s key planning meeting has huge implications
 
PODCAST: Dr Dark, after Dark. Macro, Chemicals & Innovation
 
PODCAST: UK-EU27 chemicals face severe Brexit disruption with or without a deal
 
PODCAST: EPCA CEO Caroline CiuCiu – Capturing growth from sustainability tops agenda
 
Pandemic redraws the map
 
PODCAST: EPCA president Marc Schuller – Pandemic has accelerated pre-existing trends

Sep
PODCAST: China bounce back may be on shaky foundations
 
PODCAST: Europe refineries, petrochemicals may close as demand fails to recover
 
Sustainability can boost the impact of stimulus packages
 
PODCAST: Why ‘peak oil’ may coincide with ‘peak plastic’
 
PODCAST: No-deal Brexit increasingly likely from January 2021
 
PODCAST: Downturn began in 2017 and has accelerated

Aug
PODCAST: China flooding displaces 60m people, $40bn in damage, hindering recovery
 
PODCAST: Virus vaccine could be years away so pivot now for permanent changes in demand
 
PODCAST: focus on radical new business models to survive

Jul
June’s data suggests only a weak recovery – India ET TV interview
 
Road to recovery? – Fx Strategies video interview
 
PODCAST: EU €800/t plastic waste tax supports recycling, may drive product substitution
 
PODCAST: Coronavirus boosts digitisation in chemicals R&D, new manufacturing technologies
 
PODCAST: Chemicals demand is improving, but recovery a long way off
 
The Top 5 pandemic paradigm shifts

Jun
The New Normal for global industry – Real Vision video interview
 
PODCAST: BP disposal raises questions over petchems as oil and gas sector lifeline
 
5 major paradigm shifts will impact industry and markets Video interview 
PODCAST: Is the global recession really just because of Covid-19?
 
PODCAST: Chemicals could face L-shaped recovery, rapid shift from oil to renewables 
PODCAST: Virus to accelerate China self-sufficiency in chemicals, overcapacity elsewhere 
PODCAST: Ethylene cycle points to project cancellations, overcapacity
 
PODCAST: Optimism for June/July may be misplaced, focus on remodelling business

May
PODCAST: Chemicals to be squeezed between rising costs, collapsing demand  
PODCAST: Sustainability’s importance to grow after the pandemic as supply chains become local  
PODCAST: Next steps for chemicals amid pandemic – ICIS advisory board  
PODCAST: As lockdowns are eased, identify pockets of demand, long-term trends  
Coronavirus dims chemistry job market prospects
 
PODCAST: New data shows depth of downturn – expect steep contraction for chemicals

Apr
The bill for two decades of doomed stimulus measures is due Financial Times letter 
PODCAST: New data shows depth of downturn – expect steep contraction for chemicals  
PODCAST: Era of cost-advantaged ethane crackers ends  
Industry needs wartime focus on meeting basic needs

Mar
A new recession era to emerge 
PODCAST: Businesses need to plan for collapse in demand, prolonged downturn 
Crude collapse to crush US petchem advantage, virus spread boosts global recession risk 
PODCAST: Expect global recession, disruption to chemicals and other major markets after oil crash

Feb
Virus slams stocks

Jan
Synchronised slowdown to persist in 2020
 

2019 

Dec
Automakers face stiff headwinds in big emerging markets
Financial Times beyondbrics

Oct
Chemicals face paradigm shift

Aug
China’s renminbi and the global ring of fire
Financial Times beyondbrics 
Asian petrochemical profits slammed by trade war crossfire, oversupply
Reuters 
It’s time for companies to take control on Brexit

Jun
Resilience amid headwinds is key

May
Por trás da cara pintada Plásticos em revista interview

Apr
Don’t get carried away by Beijing’s stimulus FT Beyondbrics

Mar
Stormy weather ahead for chemicals 
Paul Hodges on chemical industry challenges
podcast 
Are your clients ready for Brexit?
Accountancy Age 
Kopieermachine van Britse handelsminister hapert Het Financieele Dagblad

Feb
The BoE’s pre-emptive strike is not without risk Financial Times letter

Jan
CEOs need new business models amid downturn 
Prepare now for synchronised global downturn YouTube video interview 

2018 

Dec
Brexit will not be decided before Christmas Channel 4 News 
Government edits own documents to remove claim no-deal Brexit is ‘unlikely’ Sky News 
UK businesses not ready for Brexit Sunday Express 
Small businesses urged to prepare for hard Brexit Daily Mail 
BBC Radio Kent interview with Paul Hodges on Brexit 
All roads lead to No Deal Breaking News

Nov
Brexit worsens global recession risk ICIS podcast 
The global economy: key indicators pointing to just how bad things are MoneyWeek podcast 
Will UK house prices ever rise again? 
BBC News interview with Paul Hodges on Brexit 
Chemical output signals trouble for global economy FT Beyondbrics

Oct
Petrochemicals face multiple challenges ICIS news podcast interview with Paul Hodges 
Is your business ready for Brexit?

Sep
Financial crises and the five stages of loss Financial Times letter

Jul
US-China tariffs could lead to global Polyethylene price war

Jun
Recycling moves up the agenda 
Recycle revolution

May
Polymer recycling comes of age 
China’s lending bubble is history FT Beyondbrics 
Nada será como antes

Mar
Goodbye to business as usual model 
Sustainability and the circular economy create major new opportunities
YouTube video interview

Feb
Older workers are looking for something more Financial Times letter 
China’s role in market volatility
FT Beyondbrics

Jan
Oil, interest rates, debt and protectionism highlight risks for 2018 
The return of volatility is the key market risk for 2018 YouTube video interview 

2017 

Dec
Anything to declare?
 
Anti-pollution drive hits China’s role as global growth engine FT Beyondbrics

Nov
Brexit reality hits U.K. chemical companies 
Verso una produzione sostenibile

Oct
Saudi Arabia’s ‘Vision 2030’ is looking a lot less clear FT Beyondbrics 
Hurricane Harvey marks new beginning for the chemical industry 
Too early to count the cost of Hurricane Harvey
YouTube video interview

Sep
Baby boomers’ spending decline has hit demand and inflation Financial Times letter

Aug
Investors ponder further shocks after N Korea jolt Reuters interview 
China’s used cars put a dent in global industry FT Beyondbrics

Jul
O negócio é largar na frente plásticos em revista

Jun
Supply chains to shift from global to local 
What’s May’s car-crash election means for us all MoneyWeek cover story 
Supply chains go local as BabyBoomers age YouTube video interview 
China’s changed priorities indicate end to stimulus FT Beyondbrics

Apr
Ageing boomers are no longer spending Financial Times letter

Mar
US polyethylene exports on frontline in the War of Words 
Trump, China in War of Words on trade YouTube video

Feb
The effectiveness and impact of post-2008 UK monetary policy Evidence to UK Treasury Committee Inquiry

Jan
2017 will see further rise in protectionism  
What the New Year may hold in store for investors MoneyWeek Round Table 
Supply/demand fundamentals set to challenge central banks
YouTube video interview 
Demographics are critical to economic forecasting Andy Haldane (Chief Economist, Bank of England) 

2016 

Dec
A new strategy for profit

Nov
Forget the IMF: global chemicals are your guide to future performance Financial Times 
Italy’s referendum is next test for Eurozone stability
 
Industry needs new strategy to spread benefits of globalisation

Oct
Fed’s economic models applied to a past era Financial Times letter 
Markets struggle with political risk 
Hope is not a strategy YouTube video interview 
Hope is not a strategy Chemical industry analysis

Sep
What is wrong with a little deflation? Portfolio Adviser podcast 
Quantitative Easing could become the next subprime  
Shifting population driving economics FT Adviser 
You’ve seen the Great Unwinding; get ready for the Great Reckoning Financial Times

Aug
Brexit risks for the UK economy EuroMoney interview 
Oil price to sink back to $30 a barrel Interactive Investor 
Demand – the New Direction for profit Premium magazine

Jul
Auto sales and the oil price: the Great Unwinding continues Financial Times 
Polymers face challenging times 
Adapting to changing global demographics

May
Chemical industry is best indicator of EM outlook – and the outlook is not good Financial Times

Apr
Saudi Arabia’s Aramco valued at more than $1tn ahead of flotation Daily Telegraph 
Saudi Aramco to become holding company Wall Street Journal

Mar
Demand – the new direction for profit 
Oil price rise unsustainable YouTube video interview 
China’s rising exports: less about growth, more about exporting deflation Financial Times

Feb
If only the central banks could print babies Financial Times 
China’s lending bubble is being deflated Financial Times 
The world’s economy soared last year (or plunged) New York Times

Jan
The Great Unwind will continue MoneyWeek Outlook for 2016 
Painful return to reality beckons 
Expect $25-$30/bbl oil and lower chemical prices in 2016 YouTube interview 
Mudou a fase da lua 

2015 

Dec
Xi in Paris: all part of China’s New Normal Financial Times blog post

Oct
Investing in oil is a slippery slope Financial Times report 
Commodity bubble pops as China model changes 
Printed money won’t save us MoneyWeek interview 
The wave of immigration is a positive thing MoneyWeek video interview

Sep
Chemicals chaos 
Europe’s migrant influx threatens Shengen BBC World Business Report interview

Jul
Supply chain revolution is on the way Video interview

Jun
Europe can win despite age trends

May
Business models have to change as BabyBoom dividend ends Video interview

Apr
A toxic combination for economic policy  
Emerging markets: a Great Unravelling

Mar
‘No country for young men’ Nick Ferrari, LBC, radio interview 
Low oil is here to stay 
O peso da idade Interview in Portuguese 
Oil prices have further to fall YouTube video interview

Feb
Oil price collapse brings deflation closer

Jan
Winners and losers in the New Normal 
How to invest during the Great Unwinding MoneyWeek video interview by Merryn Somerset Webb 
MoneyWeek feature article 
Oil price collapse and China slowdown create New Normal world YouTube video interview 

2014 

Dec
Oil prices keep bouncing down the stairs A ‘pH Report’ Research Note 
A great unwinding 
Aging Europe needs the migrants it doesn’t want

Nov
Employment Outlook – getting back to work 
The Great Unwinding is underway 
Saudi Arabia needs much lower oil prices Research Note

Oct
Too many unanswered questions on China growth Financial Times 
The Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus is underway Research Note 
Time to look forwards, not back 
European companies and investors are missing a major growth opportunity video interview

Sep
China’s economic transformation

Jul
The economic impact of today’s major demographic changes Euromoney video interview

Jun
US housing hit by demographic shift 
Here today and gone tomorrow? A simple guide to China’s world of trade finance

May
Geopolitics and demand 
China accelerates reform of its financial sector Research Note

Apr
Population aging creates capital repayment risk for government bonds Allianz Project M magazine 
US shale gas expansions highlight lack of demand YouTube interview

Mar
Will market forces start to play a role in China? Research Note 
US boom is a dangerous game 
Demographics drive demand, and fertility rates are falling 

Feb
China bank lending: From $1tn to $10tn and back again Research Note

Jan
Plan for a volatile world 

2013 

Nov
Iran talks offer hope

Oct
Deal with union prevents closing of Scottish plant New York Times 
Last-ditch scramble to save Grangemouth Financial Times front page headline story 
Unite union to make last-ditch attempt to save plant and 800 jobs Daily Telegraph 
This is the end of constant growth 
Ageing populations create new opportunities YouTube interview 

Sep
The tide is turning on chemical growth

Aug
Sinopec’s big picture strategy 
A flap of a butterfly’s wings to freeze the UK economy 
Fair play at work

Jul
Women in the US labour force 
Ageing UK population will have lower economic growth  
Population Problems Barron’s letter 
Oil markets risk rapid repricing as Japan stimulates Research Note 
Demography drives business volatility

May
Population problems

Apr
The impact of the central banks’ stimulus programmes on oil markets Conference presentation 
Ageing boomers change demand patterns

Mar
Sustaining Growth as the West Arrives at the Demographic Cliff Conference keynote presentation

Feb
Risks to growth overshadow ‘false dawn’ on financial markets 
The impact of an ageing population on GDP UK Treasury Committee evidence 

Jan
Global economy faces tough 2013 
2013 Outlook – Challenges and Opportunities Video interview 
Happy 55th Birthday, Mr and Ms Average BabyBoomer Financial Times 

2012 

Dec
MONEY WEEK video tutorial on the importance of demographics 
Growth won’t save us, there won’t be any Money Week 
Could 2013 be the year of BabyBoom doom? 
CNBC Africa interview on the impact of the New Normal on demand patterns Video interview

Nov
Demographics slowdown hits company results 
Industry must respond to changing demographics

Oct
The cost of growing old frugally Financial Times 
US economy: Demographics the ‘silent witness’ RESEARCH NOTE 
The global economy: Demographics the ‘silent witness’ RESEARCH NOTE 
UK Economy: Demographics the ‘silent witness’ RESEARCH NOTE 
Purchasing in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world 
Central banks make the downturn worse 
Major recession ahead warns leading industry consultant

Sep
Central banks will make global downturn worse RESEARCH NOTE 
The New Retirement (US radio interview podcast) 
How the West’s ageing population is already altering stock market returns

Aug
An end to constant growth

Jun
Auto sector needs new direction 
A window on the outlook

May
Prepare for a New Normal

Apr
A road map for success

Mar
New policies needed to restore growth 
Chinese want affordability not luxury Financial Times letter

Feb
New ways of manufacturing will be vital (video interview) 
A changing landscape – issues for manufacturers 
Oil price highs mean trouble lies ahead 
The products of the future – doing more with less

Jan
Welcome to Austeria 
Policy makers should learn from their mistakes (video interview) 

2011 

Nov
Time to alter strategy (includes video interview) 
BabyBoomers change the markets 
Don’t rely on Asia to save the chemical industry (video interview) 
The risks to China and India growth

Oct
Middle East companies aim to capture emerging markets 
The outlook for Q4 and beyond (video interview) 
Longer-term strategies needed

Sep
‘When I’m Sixty-Four’ (YouTube video interview) 
‘When I’m Sixty-Four’ 
‘When I’m Sixty-Four’ (YouTube video interview) 
Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – Chapter 5 
The influence of demographics on future demand Interview 
New Normal challenges firms to think differently 
The golden age of the boomers is gone – for ever Financial Times letter

Aug
The world in 2021 (YouTube video interview) 
The world in 2021 
Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – Chapter 4

Jul
Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – Chapter 3 
Oil prices distorted by Wall Street’s computer trading (YouTube video interview) 
Oil prices distorted by computer trading 
Future great chemical companies need long-term thinking

Jun
Chemical demand demographics are changing rapidly (YouTube video interview) 
Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – Chapter 2 
The financial crisis and the New Normal 
China plastic demand slump may crimp Asian naphtha demand

May
Global economy entering New Normal (YouTube video interview) 
The Challenges of the New Normal 
Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – Chapter 1 
Welcome to Austeria – 4 risks to chemical company profits

Apr
High oil price means chemicals market heading for major downturn (YouTube video interview)

Mar
Middle East uprising can impact your chemistry job

Jan
Time is Ripe to Plan for Uncertainty 
Survive by Planning for Uncertainty YouTube video interview 
INSIGHT – Taking Time to Consider Alternative Futures 
Budgeting for Uncertainty – the New White Paper 

2010 

Dec
Crude likely to fall on slow economic growth 
Petrobras leads project development in Latin America

Nov
Benzene buyers need to evaulate sourcing strategies YouTube video interview

Oct
NiTech wins ICIS Innovation Award Recovery is supply-driven YouTube video interview 
Changes leave the markets in turmoil 
Major changes underway in chemical markets YouTube video interview

Sep
Riskiness of bonds may be over-inflated Financial Times article

Aug
Dr Ralf Kuhlmann joins IeC 
The real bottom line is what we need

Jul
View American Chemical Society webinar on the H2 Outlook 
US Institute for Supply Management – summary of the mid-year White Paper Update

Jun
Petchem upturn may just be temporary respite 
Budgeting for a New Normal 
A mid-year White Paper Update

Apr
Strategies for success in the US petchem and polymer business YouTube Video interview 
Be a winner, not a victim

Mar
The need for Innovation during the downturn YouTube Video interview

Feb
‘Budgeting for a New Normal’ White Paper (5MB)

Jan
Restocking not the same as Recovery 
Paul Hodges’s chemical industry outlook YouTube Video interview 
Prepare for the great petchem marathon 
Recession prompts shift in chemical company strategies 

2009 

Dec
Downturn prompts chemical strategy shift

Nov
Bloomberg, ICIS reports on IeC Amsterdam Conference 
Strong crude weighs on Asian chemicals demand

Oct
New reality for chemicals

Sep
How to tell if your company is in financial trouble, or recovering 
Reducing energy costs in the water industry

Aug
The China question

Jul
Chemicals sector struggles in recession

Apr
IeC’s Paul Hodges to judge annual ICIS Innovation Awards 
Restocking begins but the downturn continues

Mar
Low-cost operation key to survival 
Radio interview with IeC’s Paul Hodges 
Interview summary

Feb
Domino effect fears over chemical industry 
Coping with oil price volatility

Jan
The CEO’s checklist for survival 

2008 

Nov
Financial Times recognises IeC “warned of coming downturn” 
European demand to be more robust in downturn 
The “crystal blog” foresaw the global financial crisis

Oct
Petrochemicals: capacity crunch 
Weaker oil prices – a mixed blessing

Sep
Credit crunch causes demand destruction (radio interview) 
Polymer demand hit by credit crunch, over-capacity

Aug
Integration will be key 
How significantly will the petchem world change? 
Only the strongest will prosper

Jul
Capacity grows despite slowdown 
A mood swing in aromatics

Jun
Chemicals feel the wind of change 
Crunch time for non-integrated petchem producers

Apr
Building your defenses

Mar
Europe chems get jitters due to weak dollar

Feb
How to run a business during a recession 

2007 

Nov
Farewell ICI 
Chem makers can expect naphtha battle

Oct
US credit crisis could spread

Sep
A logistical nightmare

New Normal FT Letters

New Normal Consulting media – FT Letters by Paul Hodges – Old Testament
New Normal Consulting media – FT Letters by Paul Hodges – Jackson Hole