New Normal in the news

Media enquiries: phodges@new-normal.com

2020  
Sept PODCAST: Europe refineries, petrochemicals may close as demand fails to recover
  Sustainability can boost the impact of stimulus packages
  PODCAST: Why ‘peak oil’ may coincide with ‘peak plastic’
  PODCAST: No-deal Brexit increasingly likely from January 2021
  PODCAST: Downturn began in 2017 and has accelerated
 
Aug PODCAST: China flooding displaces 60m people, $40bn in damage, hindering recovery
  PODCAST: Virus vaccine could be years away so pivot now for permanent changes in demand
  PODCAST: focus on radical new business models to survive
 
Jul June’s data suggests only a weak recovery – India ET TV interview
  Road to recovery? – Fx Strategies video interview
  PODCAST: EU €800/t plastic waste tax supports recycling, may drive product substitution
  PODCAST: Coronavirus boosts digitisation in chemicals R&D, new manufacturing technologies
  PODCAST: Chemicals demand is improving, but recovery a long way off
  The Top 5 pandemic paradigm shifts
 
Jun The New Normal for global industry – Real Vision video interview
  PODCAST: BP disposal raises questions over petchems as oil and gas sector lifeline
  5 major paradigm shifts will impact industry and markets Video interview
  PODCAST: Is the global recession really just because of Covid-19?
  PODCAST: Chemicals could face L-shaped recovery, rapid shift from oil to renewables
  PODCAST: Virus to accelerate China self-sufficiency in chemicals, overcapacity elsewhere
  PODCAST: Ethylene cycle points to project cancellations, overcapacity
  PODCAST: Optimism for June/July may be misplaced, focus on remodelling business
 
May PODCAST: Chemicals to be squeezed between rising costs, collapsing demand
  PODCAST: Sustainability’s importance to grow after the pandemic as supply chains become local
  PODCAST: Next steps for chemicals amid pandemic – ICIS advisory board
  PODCAST: As lockdowns are eased, identify pockets of demand, long-term trends
  Coronavirus dims chemistry job market prospects
  PODCAST: New data shows depth of downturn – expect steep contraction for chemicals
 
Apr The bill for two decades of doomed stimulus measures is due Financial Times letter
  PODCAST: New data shows depth of downturn – expect steep contraction for chemicals
  PODCAST: Era of cost-advantaged ethane crackers ends
  Industry needs wartime focus on meeting basic needs
 
Mar A new recession era to emerge
  PODCAST: Businesses need to plan for collapse in demand, prolonged downturn
  Crude collapse to crush US petchem advantage, virus spread boosts global recession risk
  PODCAST: Expect global recession, disruption to chemicals and other major markets after oil crash
 
Feb Virus slams stocks
 
Jan Synchronised slowdown to persist in 2020
 
2019  
Dec Automakers face stiff headwinds in big emerging markets Financial Times beyondbrics
 
Oct Chemicals face paradigm shift
 
Aug China’s renminbi and the global ring of fire Financial Times beyondbrics
  Asian petrochemical profits slammed by trade war crossfire, oversupply Reuters
  It’s time for companies to take control on Brexit
 
Jun Resilience amid headwinds is key
 
May Por trás da cara pintada Plásticos em revista interview
 
April Don’t get carried away by Beijing’s stimulus FT Beyondbrics
 
Mar Stormy weather ahead for chemicals
  Paul Hodges on chemical industry challenges podcast
  Are your clients ready for Brexit? Accountancy Age
  Kopieermachine van Britse handelsminister hapert Het Financieele Dagblad
Feb The BoE’s pre-emptive strike is not without risk Financial Times letter
 
Jan CEOs need new business models amid downturn
  Prepare now for synchronised global downturn YouTube video interview
2018  
Dec Brexit will not be decided before Christmas Channel 4 News
  Government edits own documents to remove claim no-deal Brexit is ‘unlikely’ Sky News
  UK businesses not ready for Brexit Sunday Express
  Small businesses urged to prepare for hard Brexit Daily Mail
  BBC Radio Kent interview with Paul Hodges on Brexit
  All roads lead to No Deal Breaking News
 
Nov Brexit worsens global recession risk ICIS podcast
  The global economy: key indicators pointing to just how bad things are MoneyWeek podcast
  Will UK house prices ever rise again?
  BBC News interview with Paul Hodges on Brexit
  Chemical output signals trouble for global economy FT Beyondbrics
 
Oct Petrochemicals face multiple challenges ICIS news podcast interview with Paul Hodges
  Is your business ready for Brexit?
 
Sept Financial crises and the five stages of loss Financial Times letter
 
July US-China tariffs could lead to global Polyethylene price war
 
June Recycling moves up the agenda
  Recycle revolution
 
May Polymer recycling comes of age
  China’s lending bubble is history FT Beyondbrics
  Nada será como antes
 
Mar Goodbye to business as usual model
  Sustainability and the circular economy create major new opportunities YouTube video interview
 
Feb Older workers are looking for something more Financial Times letter
  China’s role in market volatility FT Beyondbrics
 
Jan Oil, interest rates, debt and protectionism highlight risks for 2018
  The return of volatility is the key market risk for 2018 YouTube video interview
 
2017  
Dec Anything to declare?
  Anti-pollution drive hits China’s role as global growth engine FT Beyondbrics
 
Nov Brexit reality hits U.K. chemical companies
  Verso una produzione sostenibile
 
Oct Saudi Arabia’s ‘Vision 2030’ is looking a lot less clear FT Beyondbrics
  Hurricane Harvey marks new beginning for the chemical industry
  Too early to count the cost of Hurricane Harvey YouTube video interview
 
Sept Baby boomers’ spending decline has hit demand and inflation Financial Times letter
 
Aug Investors ponder further shocks after N Korea jolt Reuters interview
  China’s used cars put a dent in global industry FT Beyondbrics
 
Jul O negócio é largar na frente plásticos em revista
 
Jun Supply chains to shift from global to local
  What’s May’s car-crash election means for us all MoneyWeek cover story
  Supply chains go local as BabyBoomers age YouTube video interview
  China’s changed priorities indicate end to stimulus FT Beyondbrics
 
Apr Ageing boomers are no longer spending Financial Times letter
Mar US polyethylene exports on front-line in the War of Words
  Trump, China in War of Words on trade YouTube video
Feb The effectiveness and impact of post-2008 UK monetary policy Evidence to UK Treasury Committee Inquiry
Jan 2017 will see further rise in protectionism
  What the New Year may hold in store for investors MoneyWeek Round Table
  Supply/demand fundamentals set to challenge central banks YouTube video interview
  Demographics are critical to economic forecasting Andy Haldane (Chief Economist, Bank of England)
2016  
Dec A new strategy for profit
Nov Forget the IMF: global chemicals are your guide to future performance Financial Times
  Italy’s referendum is next test for Eurozone stability
  Industry needs new strategy to spread benefits of globalisation
Oct Fed’s economic models applied to a past era Financial Times letter
  Markets struggle with political risk
  Hope is not a strategy YouTube video interview
  Hope is not a strategy Chemical industry analysis
Sept What is wrong with a little deflation? Portfolio Adviser podcast
  Quantitative Easing could become the next subprime
  Shifting population driving economics FT Adviser
  You’ve seen the Great Unwinding; get ready for the Great Reckoning Financial Times
Aug Brexit risks for the UK economy EuroMoney interview
  Oil price to sink back to $30 a barrel Interactive Investor
  Demand – the New Direction for profit Premium magazine
Jul Auto sales and the oil price: the Great Unwinding continues Financial Times
  Polymers face challenging times
  Adapting to changing global demographics
May Chemical industry is best indicator of EM outlook – and the outlook is not good Financial Times
Apr Saudi Arabia’s Aramco valued at more than $1tn ahead of flotation Daily Telegraph
  Saudi Aramco to become holding company Wall Street Journal
Mar Demand – the new direction for profit
  Oil price rise unsustainable YouTube video interview
  China’s rising exports: less about growth, more about exporting deflation Financial Times
Feb If only the central banks could print babies Financial Timess
  China’s lending bubble is being deflated Financial Times
  The world’s economy soared last year (or plunged) New York Times
Jan The Great Unwind will continue MoneyWeek Outlook for 2016
  Painful return to reality beckons
  Expect $25-$30/bbl oil and lower chemical prices in 2016 YouTube interview
  Mudou a fase da lua
2015  
Dec Xi in Paris: all part of China’s New Normal Financial Times blog post
Oct Investing in oil is a slippery slope Financial Times report
  Commodity bubble pops as China model changes
  Printed money won’t save us MoneyWeek interview
  The wave of immigration is a positive thing MoneyWeek video interview
Sept Chemicals chaos
  Europe’s migrant influx threatens Shengen BBC World Business Report interview
Jul Supply chain revolution is on the way Video interview
Jun Europe can win despite age trends
May Business models have to change as BabyBoom dividend ends Video interview
Apr A toxic combination for economic policy
  Emerging markets: a Great Unravelling
Mar ‘No country for young men’ Nick Ferrari, LBC, radio interview
  Low oil is here to stay
  O peso da idade Interview in Portuguese
  Oil prices have further to fall YouTube video interview
Feb Oil price collapse brings deflation closer
Jan Winners and losers in the New Normal
  How to invest during the Great Unwinding MoneyWeek video interview by Merryn Somerset Webb
  MoneyWeek feature article
  Oil price collapse and China slowdown create New Normal world YouTube video interview
2014  
Dec Oil prices keep bouncing down the stairs A ‘pH Report’ Research Note
  A great unwinding
  Aging Europe needs the migrants it doesn’t want
Nov Employment Outlook – getting back to work
  The Great Unwinding is underway
  Saudi Arabia needs much lower oil prices Research Note
Oct Too many unanswered questions on China growth Financial Times
  The Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus is underway Research Note
  Time to look forwards, not back
  European companies and investors are missing a major growth opportunity video interview
Sept China’s economic transformation
Jul The economic impact of today’s major demographic changes Euromoney video interview
Jun US housing hit by demographic shift
  Here today and gone tomorrow? A simple guide to China’s world of trade finance
May Geopolitics and demand
  China accelerates reform of its financial sector Research Note
Apr Population aging creates capital repayment risk for government bonds Allianz Project M magazine
  US shale gas expansions highlight lack of demand YouTube interview
Mar Will market forces start to play a role in China? Research Note
  US boom is a dangerous game
  Demographics drive demand, and fertility rates are falling  
Feb China bank lending: From $1tn to $10tn and back again Research Note
Jan Plan for a volatile world
2013  
Nov Iran talks offer hope
Oct Deal with union prevents closing of Scottish plant New York Times
  Last-ditch scramble to save Grangemouth Financial Times front page headline story
  Unite union to make last-ditch attempt to save plant and 800 jobs Daily Telegraph
  This is the end of constant growth
  Ageing populations create new opportunities YouTube interview  
Sept The tide is turning on chemical growth
Aug Sinopec’s big picture strategy
  A flap of a butterfly’s wings to freeze the UK economy
  Fair play at work
Jul Women in the US labour force
  Ageing UK population will have lower economic growth  
  Population Problems Barron’s letter
  Oil markets risk rapid repricing as Japan stimulates Research Note
  Demography drives business volatility
May Population problems
Apr The impact of the central banks’ stimulus programmes on oil markets Conference presentation
  Ageing boomers change demand patterns
Mar Sustaining Growth as the West Arrives at the Demographic Cliff Conference keynote presentation
Feb Risks to growth overshadow ‘false dawn’ on financial markets
  The impact of an ageing population on GDP UK Treasury Committee evidence  
Jan Global economy faces tough 2013
  2013 Outlook – Challenges and Opportunities Video interview
  Happy 55th Birthday, Mr and Ms Average BabyBoomer Financial Times
2012  
Dec MONEY WEEK video tutorial on the importance of demographics
  Growth won’t save us, there won’t be any Money Week
  Could 2013 be the year of BabyBoom doom?
  CNBC Africa interview on the impact of the New Normal on demand patterns Video interview
Nov Demographics slowdown hits company results
  Industry must respond to changing demographics
Oct The cost of growing old frugally Financial Times
  US economy: Demographics the ‘silent witness’ RESEARCH NOTE
  The global economy: Demographics the ‘silent witness’ RESEARCH NOTE
  UK Economy: Demographics the ‘silent witness’ RESEARCH NOTE
  Purchasing in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world
  Central banks make the downturn worse
  Major recession ahead warns leading industry consultant
Sept Central banks will make global downturn worse RESEARCH NOTE
  The New Retirement (US radio interview podcast)
  How the West’s ageing population is already altering stock market returns
Aug An end to constant growth
Jun Auto sector needs new direction
  A window on the outlook
May Prepare for a New Normal
Apr A road map for success
Mar New policies needed to restore growth
  Chinese want affordability not luxury Financial Times letter
Feb New ways of manufacturing will be vital (video interview)
  A changing landscape – issues for manufacturers
  Oil price highs mean trouble lies ahead
  The products of the future – doing more with less
Jan Welcome to Austeria
  Policy makers should learn from their mistakes (video interview)
2011  
Nov Time to alter strategy (includes video interview)
  BabyBoomers change the markets
  Don’t rely on Asia to save the chemical industry (video interview)
  The risks to China and India growth
Oct Middle East companies aim to capture emerging markets
  The outlook for Q4 and beyond (video interview)
  Longer-term strategies needed
Sep ‘When I’m Sixty-Four’ (YouTube video interview)
  ‘When I’m Sixty-Four’
  ‘When I’m Sixty-Four’ (YouTube video interview)
  Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – Chapter 5
  The influence of demographics on future demand Interview
  New Normal challenges firms to think differently
  The golden age of the boomers is gone – for ever Financial Times letter
Aug The world in 2021 (YouTube video interview)
  The world in 2021
  Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – Chapter 4
Jul Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – Chapter 3
  Oil prices distorted by Wall Street’s computer trading (YouTube video interview)
  Oil prices distorted by computer trading
  Future great chemical companies need long-term thinking
Jun Chemical demand demographics are changing rapidly (YouTube video interview)
  Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – Chapter 2
  The financial crisis and the New Normal
  China plastic demand slump may crimp Asian naphtha demand
May Global economy entering New Normal (YouTube video interview)
  The Challenges of the New Normal
  Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – Chapter 1
  Welcome to Austeria – 4 risks to chemical company profits
Apr High oil price means chemicals market heading for major downturn (YouTube video interview)
Mar Middle East uprising can impact your chemistry job
Jan Time is Ripe to Plan for Uncertainty
  Survive by Planning for Uncertainty YouTube video interview
  INSIGHT – Taking Time to Consider Alternative Futures
  Budgeting for Uncertainty – the New White Paper
2010  
Dec Crude likely to fall on slow economic growth
  Petrobras leads project development in Latin America
Nov Benzene buyers need to evaulate sourcing strategies YouTube video interview
Oct NiTech wins ICIS Innovation Award
  Recovery is supply-driven YouTube video interview
  Changes leave the markets in turmoil
  Major changes underway in chemical markets YouTube video interview
Sep Riskiness of bonds may be over-inflated Financial Times article
Aug Dr Ralf Kuhlmann joins IeC
  The real bottom line is what we need
Jul View American Chemical Society webinar on the H2 Outlook
  US Institute for Supply Management – summary of the mid-year White Paper Update
Jun Petchem upturn may just be temporary respite
  Budgeting for a New Normal
  A mid-year White Paper Update
Apr Strategies for success in the US petchem and polymer business YouTube Video interview
  Be a winner, not a victim
Mar The need for Innovation during the downturn YouTube Video interview
Feb ‘Budgeting for a New Normal’ White Paper (5MB)
Jan Restocking not the same as Recovery
  Paul Hodges’s chemical industry outlookYouTube Video interview
  Prepare for the great petchem marathon
  Recession prompts shift in chemical company strategies
2009  
Dec Downturn prompts chemical strategy shift
Nov Bloomberg, ICIS reports on IeC Amsterdam Conference
  Strong crude weighs on Asian chemicals demand
Oct New reality for chemicals
Sept How to tell if your company is in financial trouble, or recovering
  Reducing energy costs in the water industry
Aug The China question
Jul Chemicals sector struggles in recession
Apr IeC’s Paul Hodges to judge annual ICIS Innovation Awards
  Restocking begins but the downturn continues
Mar Low-cost operation key to survival
  Radio interview with IeC’s Paul Hodges
  Interview summary
Feb Domino effect fears over chemical industry
  Coping with oil price volatility
Jan The CEO’s checklist for survival
2008  
Nov Financial Times recognises IeC “warned of coming downturn”
  European demand to be more robust in downturn
  The “crystal blog” foresaw the global financial crisis
Oct Petrochemicals: capacity crunch
  Weaker oil prices – a mixed blessing
Sep Credit crunch causes demand destruction (radio interview)
  Polymer demand hit by credit crunch, over-capacity
Aug Integration will be key
  How significantly will the petchem world change?
  Only the strongest will prosper
Jul Capacity grows despite slowdown
  A mood swing in aromatics
Jun Chemicals feel the wind of change
  Crunch time for non-integrated petchem producers
Apr Building your defenses
Mar Europe chems get jitters due to weak dollar
Feb How to run a business during a recession
2007  
Nov Farewell ICI
  Chem makers can expect naphtha battle
Oct US credit crisis could spread
Sep A logistical nightmare