New Normal Insight is evolving out of the weekly briefing, pH Outlook.
It is designed to help you identify the key changes in the wider landscape that will impact you and your business. We focus on critical areas of the economy including oil and financial markets.
Some of these changes are already becoming obvious, such as rising levels of debt and the threat of deflation due to lack of demand. Others are still to appear, and relate to the way behaviour is likely to change once the pandemic is over. Our analysis is based on a lifetime’s experience of working in these markets.
While we continue to develop New Normal Insight you can continue to enjoy reading it free of charge on this page
Helping investors make decisions.
- Regular weekly analysis and commentary
- Engage with experts via ‘comments’
New Normal Insight aims to help you identify the key changes in the wider landscape that will impact you and your business.
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New Normal Insights
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Central banks try to ‘print babies’ to boost consumption
Supply/demand balances are weakening in oil markets, whilst a Fed Governor has highlighted the serious problem that developed in Treasury markets during…
China to announce new focus for economic growth
Volatility has begun to rise in oil and bond markets, as we expected. China’s upcoming ‘Vision 2035’ seems likely to prove a…
Market volatility threatens as economic and political risks rise
Low volatility is either a sign that things are going well, or of complacency. As we go into Q4, “fear indices” for…
The real need is to get people back to work
Welcome to the first issue of New Normal Insight, which has evolved out of our Outlook briefing. It continues our focus on…
pH Outlook
Market bubbles start to burst
Oil prices have tumbled back to June levels, whilst the call option favourite Tesla has seen its price crash 26%. And the…
Chemicals data suggests recovery as far away as ever
Global Capacity Utilisation is only back to the March level at 77%, well below December 2019’s 82,1% before the recession began.
Chinese competition now the major threat to Apple
Apple’s SE model launch means it is now competing with Android-based Chinese competitors – probably not good news for its future profits
Central banks create a K-shaped rebound
The US is seeing a K-shaped rebound. Fed support meant the S&P 500 made new all-time highs last week. But 20% of…
The best view is always from the top of the mountain
US stock markets are riding high, with valuations in the 95th percentile since 1881. But the US economy is in trouble, with…
Political risk rises as Trump heads for one-term Presidency
Markets ignored our forecast of a Donald Trump win in 2016. And now they are ignoring the risk that he might not…