Helping you navigate the new normal
Greed and fear are the primary emotions driving China’s housing and auto markets today, as China’s lending bubble hits new heights. For ordinary citizens, greed is the key driver: Average home prices in Beijing rose an eye-popping 63% between October 2015 – February 2017 In Shanghai, one enterprising estate agent (realtor) […]
The best view is always from the top of the mountain. That’s probably why the outlook seems so promising for US auto and housing markets. Both appear to be doing well on the surface, but dig a little deeper and concerns soon emerge. The chart above demonstrates the point, updating the data from my July post […]
“Recent economic reports suggest a bleaker picture for housing…. Some of the weakness reflects the cold weather in much of the country. However, higher home prices and mortgage rates are taking a toll on affordability.” This was the sober report yesterday from the chairman of the authoritative S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, adding that “the strongest part […]
Housing used to be the key driver for US chemical demand in the SuperCycle, and went into overdrive in the subprime era between 2003-6, when housing starts rose to 2 million/year. We don’t yet have December’s data, but we already know that 2013′s total will be only half this level, despite all policymakers’ efforts to revive the […]
The blog is changing its regular presentation of US house price movements, to mirror that used for auto sales. This should help to identify month-by-month changes.
It also means there is no need to use seasonally adjustmed numbers. These are guessw…