Helping you navigate the new normal since 2001
US GDP growth is slowing, again, as the chart of the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “GDP Now” forecast shows: Forecast Q1 growth has slipped to just 0.6% from an initial 3.4% at the end of January Consensus economic forecasts are still much higher, but even they have fallen to 1.7% from 2.2% […]
US GDP growth stalls with participation rates near all-time low Read More
Employment income is critical for most Americans and for the US economy. The above chart shows how the key factor – the participation rate – has changed since records began in 1948. It shows July data, to avoid the need for seasonal adjustment, split by Men, Women and Total: □ Last month’s Total rate was 63.4%, versus the […]
12 million missing workers highlight US GDP slowdown Read More
My new post for the Financial Times FT Data blog discusses how the ageing of the US population is creating major headwinds for the economy. Guest post by Paul Hodges| May 06 13:45 | Demographic change is creating major headwinds for the US economy, as confirmed by its disappointing first quarter GDP growth of 0.2 […]
US economy’s demographic dividend is fast turning into a deficit Read More
“The big picture remains unchanged. Four years after the recession officially ended, per capita output and income have yet to return to their pre-crisis highs. The recovery still ranks as the worst since World War II. And despite the modest acceleration in the past two quarters, the recovery shows little sign of gaining momentum.” The […]
The above chart from the Wall Street Journal highlights the major change that has already taken place in the US economy as it transitions to the New Normal. The black line shows the 10-year average growth for US GDP since 1980, which has halved since …