Helping you navigate the new normal since 2001
US retail sales have failed to see the rise that most economists, and the US Federal Reserve, confidently forecast at the beginning of the year. The theory was that lower oil prices would stimulate discretionary spending, and ensure that the long-promised economic recovery finally arrived. But September sales were up just 0.1% versus August, and […]
Cash poor, time rich US consumers cause retail sales to plateau Read More
Americans are driving less each year. For the first time since records began in 1970, average vehicle miles per person has been declining for over a decade. The trend is now so well established, it is highly unlikely that the current collapse of oil prices back to normal levels will change the overall picture. This has enormous implications […]
Americans drive less as demand patterns see major change Read More
The best view is always from the top of the mountain. That’s probably why the outlook seems so promising for US auto and housing markets. Both appear to be doing well on the surface, but dig a little deeper and concerns soon emerge. The chart above demonstrates the point, updating the data from my July post […]
US auto sales, housing starts, will be hit by oil price collapse Read More
Major problems are developing in the US auto market. The critical issue is that companies have been adding capacity since 2009 on the basis that demand would return to SuperCycle levels. But it hasn’t. The result is that the mass market has become more and more competitive. Only sales into the high margin luxury/pickup segments are actually […]
US auto sales showed continued progress in August. As the chart shows, August volume at 1.5m (red square) was a new record for the month, and 17% above 2012 levels (green line). In turn, of course, this was excellent news for chemical manufacturers, as the American Chemistry Council calculate each new car is worth $3539 to the industry. […]
US auto sales surge as leasing deals remain cheaper than used cars Read More