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“When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen”, Bob Farrell

At the beginning of the year, “everyone knew” that inflation was about to take off, and that the US$ was going to collapse. Last week, the great Bob Farrell’s Rule No 9 proved its worth, yet again. US interest rates fell sharply and the US$ bottomed for this cycle. The two charts above tell the

The post “When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen”, Bob Farrell appeared first on Chemicals and the Economy.

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Rising US interest rates, US$ and oil prices set to pressure financial markets

Everyone who has ever played the Beer Distribution Game on a training course knows what is happening in supply chains today. A small increase in underlying demand is rapidly leading to a massive increase in ‘apparent demand’. As the New York Times reports, “the pandemic has disrupted every stage of the (supply chain) journey.”  And

The post Rising US interest rates, US$ and oil prices set to pressure financial markets appeared first on Chemicals and the Economy.

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Chart of the Year – CAPE Index signals negative S&P 500 returns to 2030

Each year, it seems there is only one candidate for Chart of the Year. And 2020 is no exception. It has to be the CAPE Index developed by Nobel Prize winner, Prof Robert Shiller.  As the chart shows, it is nearly at an all-time high with Tesla’s addition to the S&P 500. Only the peak

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Trump policies to impact global supply chains, US stock markets

Wall Street’s post-election rally suggests that many investors currently have the wrong idea about Donald Trump. They have decided he is a new Ronald Reagan, with policies that will deliver a major bull market. But those promoting this narrative have forgotten their history. Both men certainly share a link with the entertainment industry. But Reagan […]

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US pensioners pay the price for Fed’s monetary policy failure

There was one bit of good news this week.  For the first time since the financial crisis began, a Governor of the US Federal Reserve acknowledged that today’s demographic changes are having a major impact on the US economy. John Williams, of the San Francisco Fed, argued that: “Shifting demographics….(mean that) interest rates are going […]

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Boom/Gloom Index suggests volatile August may lie ahead

It may be an idea to keep your smartphone charged and within reach, if you are planning a trip to the beach this month.  Certainly market behaviour since June has been more and more skittish.  The experts, after all, were telling us that central banks were certain to do more major stimulus efforts to boost […]

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Global stock markets weaken as Great Unwinding of stimulus continues

It is 7 years since global stock markets bottomed after the 2008 financial crash.  But as my regular 6-monthly update on their performance shows, it has been a very mixed picture since then.  The chart shows how prices have moved since their pre-2008 peak in the world’s 8 major markets, and in the US 30-year […]

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Common sense continues to elude central banks as they battle demographic cliff

Central banks are in a losing battle, as they try to reverse the inevitable slowdown created by the arrival of the demographic cliff.  Last year’s 5% fall in global GDP in current dollars tells its own story. Common sense would tell them they can’t possibly win.  After all, how do you persuade New Olders in […]

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Financial markets feel impact of the Great Unwinding

Its not been a great start to the year for those who have trusted in conventional wisdom: Western stock markets have been reeling, with the US S&P 500 Index down sharply since Monday It has been the worst opening for world stock markets since 2008 – not a good year for investors China’s currency has […]

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Great Unwinding creates Great Divergence in financial markets

Most traders prefer to be with the crowd – then, at least, they can’t be personally blamed if things go wrong.  Instead, they can claim that “nobody could have seen the change coming”.  So as we approach year-end, many traders are becoming very nervous as the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus means that markets start […]

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Phase 2 of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus begins

Greece, Iran, China – suddenly real world issues are starting to dominate the headlines.  And few people now believe that printing more money is the way to solve these issues.  Instead, political leaders are being forced to take the hard decisions they have ducked for so long. Financial markets are clearly reflecting the change.  They […]

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Volatility rises as central bank policies prove wishful thinking

Q1 was very difficult for many companies and investors.  They had wanted to believe since 2009 that central banks could somehow control the global economy: The oil price would always be $100/bbl The US $ would always remain weak Central banks would always be able to stimulate growth in the economy Stock markets would always go up in the […]

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Boom/Gloom Index suggests S&P 500 close to its peak

How long can the juggler keep all the balls in the air? That is the question that compels us to stand in the square and watch her skill at work. We have the same fascination watching central bankers at work – they similarly aim to keep financial markets aloft, to create their desired ‘wealth effect’. But we know that […]

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Shiller warning suggests S&P 500 bubble coming to an end

Nobel Prizewinner Prof Robert Shiller correctly forecast the dot-com collapse in 2000, and the 2008 financial Crisis, using the chart above.  Now he is warning we risk a 3rd collapse. The problem is that Western central banks have undertaken the largest financial experiment in history.  Their policy has been to boost financial markets, particularly the US S&P 500 – the world’s […]

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Financial market melt-up takes S&P 500 to new record

A year ago, the blog suggested that financial markets were reaching their most dangerous ‘melt-up’ stage, driven by investor complacency about the ability of central banks to protect them from any downturn.  This analysis was confirmed in November, when absurdly high prices were paid for works of modern art, smashing previous records. Gillian Tett of the Financial Times (another of […]

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The trend is your friend until it isn’t – part 2

“May you live in interesting times” is a Chinese proverb which has an alternative meaning as a curse.  And the blog suspects this duality of meaning may start to make a lot of sense as we go through 2014. We have, after all, been in a very strange world for the past 5 years.  Markets […]

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US stock markets hit record but real economy remains slow

“Don’t fight the Fed” is one of the oldest rules in stock market investment.  And it has proved valid again, as this month’s IeC Boom/Gloom Index shows:…

The Fed and other G7 central banks have poured $10tn of stimulus into

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Prices rise whilst demand falls

The blog is extremely concerned about recent market developments.

Nobody minds higher prices, if they are a response to strong demand and can be passed through to customers. But today’s high prices have nothing to do with strong demand. On the contr…

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Computers push oil prices higher, again

Trading volumes in financial markets are very low these days. Many ordinary investors are on holiday, and others are focused on the Olympics. So it is easy for the high-frequency computers to create major volatility – and large profits for their owne…

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Financial markets hope for more policy ‘lunacy’

The last few days have seen financial markets rallying, whilst the news from the real economy gets worse. US GDP growth in Q2 was just 1.5%. And the Wall Street Journal notes the recovery since 2009 has been the weakest in the post-War period.

But …

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‘Waiting for Bernanke’ is hottest show on Wall Street

‘Waiting for Godot’, the great play by Irish writer and Nobel Literature Prizewinner, Samuel Beckett, deals with the meaning of existence. Written just after the Second World War, its two characters wait endlessly for the arrival of Godot.

US financi…

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A is for Agility in today’s VUCA world

Pity the poor purchasing manager, who:

• Must keep inventories low as end-user demand remains slow, and the CFO remains very worried about the working capital risk
• Must keep inventories high, to minimise the risk of running short if supply probl…

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Weak chemical markets suggest difficult times ahead

Over Christmas, the blog spent some time considering whether its IeC Downturn Alert had served its purpose. By luck, or possibly judgement, it had been launched at the exact market peak on 29 April. And hopefully it had helped to alert companies to t…

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"A failure to stay ahead of events"

Petchem markets are doing an excellent job in their role as a leading indicator for the global economy. But as we warn in Boom, Gloom and the New Normal, policymakers remain in Denial about their message.

The chart above spells it out clearly.

Vol…

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What goes up, comes down

Don’t panic is the blog’s suggestion, after last week’s market collapse.

Instead, the important thing is to plan for what might happen next. Scenario planning is absolutely critical to survival over coming months.

The blog’s advice is to assemble yo…

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Market volatility hits new peaks

Petchem markets provided a perfect case study of Volatility last week, confirming the blog’s view that we are heading into a VUCA world where Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity will dominate.

This was also real volatility, where prices …

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Complacency rises as markets fall

Financial markets are telling us something important about the outlook.

Profitable themes over the past month have been expectations of weakness in crude oil prices, in China’s economy, and in the financial sector; plus positive views on long-dated go…

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Buyers disappear as oil prices fall

Petchem markets continue to fulfill their role as leading indicators for the global economy. The chart shows the benchmark products in the IeC Downturn Monitor since January 2011:

• PTA prices in Asia (red line) have remained weak throughout, clear…

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Cash-flow fears rise as the ‘storm’ gets nearer

The blog fears the storm discussed last month is getting closer.

Oil prices have weakened, with Brent falling $7/bbl last week to $113/bbl as Iran worries reduced. Attention is thus refocusing on the fundamentals, where US oil inventories are now at …

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Downturn Monitor approaches its anniversary

It is almost a year since the blog launched its IeC Downturn Monitor. The aim was to try and avoid the problems seen in H2 2008, when operating rates remained high down the value chain whilst demand fell.

The above chart shows the weekly changes in…

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Financial markets rally on false rumour

Last week saw yet another example of the damage being caused to financial markets by the computerised high-frequency traders (HFTs).

As the chart shows, the S&P 500 jumped 20 points on Thursday (1.5%), whilst the Dow Jones Industrial average jumped ov…

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Oil prices near Q2 2008’s record level

Finally, and far too late, policy makers are waking up to the damage that today’s high oil prices are doing to the global economy. Q1’s oil price averaged $119/bbl, just 7% below Q2 2008’s record $127/bbl ($2012).

Thus Saudi Oil Minister, Ali Naim…

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Petchems ‘sailing towards a storm’

Q1 should have been a strong quarter for global petchem demand:

• Buyers had to restock in the New Year, as CFOs had cut working capital for year-end reasons
• In the West, Easter is delayed until April, and the USA has benefited from the warmest …

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Financial and petchem markets differ on the outlook

“Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both”
The opening of Robert Frost’s famous poem ‘The road not taken’ aptly sums up today’s market situation:

• Financial markets continue to be supported by the Fed’s Operation Twi…

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Benzene, PTA warn new downturn may be close

As regular readers know, the blog regards benzene as an excellent leading indicator for petchem markets and the global economy. Its track record since the start of the crisis in 2008 has continued to be strong.

The reason is probably two-fold:

• I…

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Markets wait for oil price lead

The March IeC Boom/Gloom Index confirms the blog’s sense that markets are sitting on a fence, waiting for something to happen. As the chart shows (blue column), it has risen back to 4.1, just at the point which divides strong from weak markets.

Simil…

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Demand declines as Federal Reserve fuels oil price rise

The Wall Street Journal carried an interesting opinion piece on Friday, assessing current market conditions from the viewpoint of the film character, Forrest Gump. Gump’s key insight is that “Stupid is as stupid does”. Thus the Journal noted:

“Oil …

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Financial market correlation hits new peak

The US S&P 500 is the most important stock index in the world. It contains 500 different major companies, in a wide variety of industries, and has been calculated since 1957.

There has never been a day when all 500 stocks moved in the same direction….

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Déjà vu all over again in petchem markets

This time last year, the petchem industry stood on the edge of an unseen precipice. Life seemed good. Prices were racing ahead and demand appeared buoyant. But in reality the buyers were only buying forward to protect margins, whilst end-user demand…

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IEA forecasts show high oil prices destroy demand

Over the past 18 months, the main investment analysts have argued that high oil prices would have no impact on the global economy. Now, new forecasts suggest their optimism has been misplaced.

The chart above gives the International Energy Agency’s…

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Financial markets jump, but petchems remain slow

Dow Chemical is usually optimistic. 6 months ago, for example, it reported that “our transformed portfolio, underpinned by our cost-advantaged and flexible operations, is now performing at a new level.”

Last week, however, Dow reported that Q4 operat…

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Boom/Gloom Index and S&P 500 disconnect

The blog, like many readers, has become rather fond of the IeC Boom/Gloom Index since it was launched in June 2009. The aim to was to track market sentiment, and it continues to perform this task.

It also throws up intriguing parallels, and sometimes…

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Markets wait to see what happens next

‘Would you buy, or would you sell?’ is always an interesting question in any market. Petchems provide a particularly balanced answer today.

• Buy arguments include – China’s buyers will return from holiday, and will need to restock; gasoline mark…

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"All news is good news" for China’s GDP slowdown

There is no arguing with markets when they are being driven by sentiment, either positive or negative. Last week’s news of China’s slower GDP growth gave rise to opposite interpretations in Asia and the West – but news media reported both were seen as…

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Uncertainty grips New Year trading

Markets are worryingly quiet for the start of a New Year. There is some restocking underway, but the main interest lies in the crude oil market.

Since Brent peaked in April, there has been a clear pattern each month:

• Prices have peaked at the …

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Record high oil prices hit demand

The blog is quite surprised at the mainstream media’s lack of interest in the fact that average Brent oil prices were at record levels in 2011 in real terms (adjusted for inflation).

The annual average of Brent prices recorded by the US Energy Infor…

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2011 saw ‘long-drawn out fundamental downturn’ begin

The chart above shows how the benchmark products in the IeC Downturn Monitor moved during 2011. The yellow shaded area covers performance since 29 April, when the Monitor launched.

It shows a year of two halves:

• The period to the end of April wa…

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IMF warns of protectionism, and possible Depression

Whisper it softly, so as not to alarm the CEO. But the world is starting to look worryingly like the picture of mid-2008.

Official bodies such as the IMF are always cautious in forecasting a downturn. They rightly worry that they could help to cause…

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DuPont warns and stresses "productivity initiatives"

By now, companies should be reordering for the New Year. CFOs have achieved their working capital targets for year-end. And the commercial people should be planning Q1 sales.

So far, however, it seems that this restocking has proved rather weak. …

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Petchem trading slows as holiday period nears

The blog was in Singapore last week, running the final New Normal workshop of the year with co-author John Richardson. The main topic during the breaks was the continuing concern over China’s demand.

This is reflected in the latest Downturn Monitor a…

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Markets slip in China and Europe

Many investors and policymakers believe that the global economy is just in a ‘soft patch’. They expect a quick recovery early in 2012. This parallels their misguided confidence in Q1 that a strong recovery was underway.

But petchem markets, a much m…

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Policy makers talk, whilst markets weaken

Petchem markets are telling us something very important about the state of the global economy. They are doing their usual job as leading indicators. Prices for all 4 of the blog’s benchmark products are now down over 20% since it launched the IeC Dow…

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UK government prepares for "economic Armageddon"

The UK government has now confirmed that it is preparing contingency plans for “economic Armageddon”, if the eurozone falls apart. This highlights the difficulties currently facing the world economy.

Meanwhile the Eurozone leadership has clearly …

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The Downturn arrives

It is 5 months since the blog launched its IeC Downturn Alert, using prices from 29 April. It wrote then that:

“They don’t ring bells at market turning points. Otherwise, we could all retire to the Bahamas.”

But its argument was that a peak was li…

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US financial markets defy gravity

Blog readers can choose their favourite leading indicator this week.

In financial markets, the US S&P 500 index continued its recent rally. If you believe the bullish analysts; a Greek default, lengthy arguments between Germany and France, and the ne…

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‘Computers say buy….sell….buy….sell…’

Petchem markets are continuing to act as leading indicators for the global economy. The IeC Downturn Alert shows there was no September rebound in orders after the holiday period.

October will have to bring a sudden, and powerful reversal of the do…

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Boom/Gloom Index confirms the downturn

The IeC Boom/Gloom Index seems to have done its job.

It was launched in June 2009, as a way of reflecting the extremely positive sentiment then building in financial markets. And as the chart shows, it remained bullish until July (blue column). Sinc…

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Downturn continues as financial markets sink

ICIS pricing is a very valuable resource, particularly at market turning points. It highlighted the start of the current downturn in April, when reporting that buyers had moved to operating on a ‘hand to mouth’ basis.

Now, its market editors are high…

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Markets fall as politicians argue

The blog’s IeC Downturn Alert is now 3 months old. The aim was to provide enough time for readers to develop robust contingency plans, as a new global downturn became more and more likely.

A key issue is that dysfunctional political systems in the eu…