polyester

Rising interest rates, volatile exchange rates, high oil prices and plastic waste challenge aromatics industry

Fears are rising about the risks of recession, as I discuss in a new one-page summary of the key issues facing the aromatics industry, ‘What does the future hold for Aromatics?‘.  Please click here to download it. These issues will also be key topics at next month’s 17th World Aromatics and Derivatives Conference, jointly organised with ICIS, […]

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China’s increase in chemicals self-sufficiency will hit US shale gas expansions

Some years ago, when China was well on the way to becoming the world’s largest importer of chemicals, a reporter asked the chairman of Sinochem, China’s largest chemical company if China intended to keep increasing its imports?  ”Not at all” was Su Shulin’s reply, “This is temporary.  It is not our strategy.  We will become […]

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China’s cotton auction key pointer for global economy outlook

Cotton markets are poised for another testing month in April.  The outcome will also have potentially major implications for the polyester chain – and in turn for commodities markets more generally. The reason is that China has announced that its long-awaited cotton auction will take place in the second half of the month.  Cotton stocks […]

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China’s PTA market moves to self-sufficiency and exports

Credit conditions are tightening day by day in China.  Companies with good payment records over many years are seeing their borrowing limits cut back.  2016 is indeed proving to be the year that President Xi Jinping “takes the pain of restructuring”. At the same time, self-sufficiency has become a key strategy for many industries, in […]

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Further chaos ahead for cotton and polyester markets as China aims to release its cotton stocks

Cotton has been on a roller-coaster ride over the past decade – to record high prices and then partial collapse.  This was followed by China’s decision to build the world’s largest ever cotton inventory as part of its post-2009 stimulus programme, to protect cotton farmers. This inventory, being off the market, means cotton has been […]

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Falling cotton/polyester prices create ‘deflation shock’ for consumers

Cotton prices appear to be collapsing again due to the surpluses created by central bank stimulus policies since 2009.  As the chart shows, these had initially caused prices to soar to levels not seen since the American Civil War: They reached 230c/lb in March 2011, nearly double the post-1982 peak of 117c/lb in May 1995 (blue […]

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China becomes major PVC, PTA exporter for first time in history

Be very careful what you wish for.  That is the key message coming out of close analysis of China’s latest trade data. Recent media reports were upbeat at news that China’s exports had increased, as it appeared to suggest Western demand was returning.  But it seems nothing could be further from the truth. One major concern is that part […]

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China’s polyester market flashes red warning signals

China’s polyester market seems to be trying to tell us something quite important about the real state of China’s economy, as the chart above shows for the main raw material, PTA (terephthalic acid): It focuses on the margin between PTA prices and naphtha feedstock (Singapore basis) Normally this is a premium between $200/t – $300/t as shows […]

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Cotton prices slip as US supply rises and China’s imports fall

It seems that cotton prices are about to return to normal levels again.  The blog’s detailed discussion of the issues last September highlighted how current Chinese government policies seemed doomed to fail, at enormous cost to the wider world.  It now looks as though China’s new leadership agrees with this conclusion. Since late 2008, the previous leadership’s […]

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Shell, Bayer, Tullow to speak at World Aromatics conference

Next month’s World Aromatics and Derivatives Conference in Brussels has a range of top-name speakers discussing key issues for the markets. Co-organised as always with ICIS, it features: Shell:  Global strategy manager Herbert Le Lorrain will present Shell’s new scenarios for the future, ‘Mountains and Oceans’ Bayer MaterialScience: New procurement head Christian Buhse will provide his first impressions […]

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