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“If you don’t know where you are going, any road will do”. The Irish proverb’s logic shows us the way forward on the greatest challenge that we face today, of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. As the President of the European Petrochemical Association, Marc Schuller, highlighted last month when issuing a ‘call to action’: “The
Portugal shows the way to climate neutrality by 2050 Read More
Polymer markets face two major challenges in coming months. The most immediate is the arrival of the major US shale gas-based ethylene and polyethylene expansions. The longer-term, but equally critical challenge, comes from growing public concern over plastic waste, particularly in the ocean. The EU has set out its vision for a new plastics economy, where: “All plastic packaging is reusable or […]
The post Goodbye to “business as usual” model for plastics appeared first on Chemicals & The Economy.
Commentators have confused cause with effect when analysing this month’s sudden downturn in financial markets, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog Surprise and confusion seem to have been the main reactions to this month’s sudden downturn in western financial markets. Yet across the world in […]
The post China’s role in market volatility – Beijing’s shifting priorities raise questions over assumptions of global growth appeared first on Chemicals & The Economy.
We are living in a strange world. As in 2007 – 2008, financial news continues to be euphoric, yet the general news is increasingly gloomy. As Nobel Prizewinner Richard Thaler, has warned, “We seem to be living in the riskiest moment of our lives, and yet the stock market seems to be napping.” Both views […]
The post The return of volatility is the key market risk for 2018 appeared first on Chemicals & The Economy.
The return of volatility is the key market risk for 2018 Read More
‘What is this block of waste plastic doing on an Arctic ice-floe’, thousand of miles from where it was manufactured? Even more worrying is the question, ‘what will happen to it next?’ As David Attenborough’s ‘Blue Planet II‘ programmes have shown, plastic can break down into micro-particles after it has been used. And these micro-particles […]
The post Sustainability now the key driver for plastics industry profits appeared first on Chemicals & The Economy.
Sustainability now the key driver for plastics industry profits Read More
China is no longer seeking ‘growth at any cost’, with global implications, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog A pedestrian covers up against pollution in Beijing © Bloomberg China’s President Xi Jinping faced two existential threats to Communist party rule when he took office 5 […]
The post Anti-pollution drive hits China’s role as global growth engine appeared first on Chemicals & The Economy.
Anti-pollution drive hits China’s role as global growth engine Read More
This wasn’t the chart that companies and investors expected to see when they were busy finalising $bns of investment in new US ethylene and polyethylene (PE) capacity back in 2013-4. They were working on 3 core assumptions, which they were sure would make these investments vastly profitable: Oil prices would always be above $100/bbl and […]
The post Difficult times ahead for US polyethylene exports as business models change appeared first on Chemicals & The Economy.
Difficult times ahead for US polyethylene exports as business models change Read More
Imagine living in the capital city of a major country, and suffering the level of pollution shown in the above photo on a regular basis. We used the photo in chapter 6 of Boom, Gloom and the New Normal when we highlighted how pollution was inevitably going to move up the political agenda in China. Controversial at the […]
President Xi focuses on pollution, not growth, as key Party Congress nears Read More
Wishful thinking can be terribly dangerous for company profits. Taken to extremes, it can lead them into bankruptcy. Recent developments in China thus make it essential for every company to immediately review its strategy for doing business in/with the country, against a realistic outlook for 2016-2018 GDP growth will likely be zero, and could well […]
The key to forecasting China’s auto demand since 2008 has been the level of bank lending, as the chart above shows. This was critical in making China the world’s largest auto market. Official data shows average disposable income was just Rmb 10k ($1600) in H1 2014, making it impossible for most people to buy a car out of income: […]
China auto market to focus on low-cost, not luxury Read More
Chapter 6 of Boom, Gloom and the New Normal in October 2011 was one of the first detailed analyses to highlight the way in which pollution was rapidly moving up the political agenda in China. Controversial at the time, it warned: “Recent growth in China and India has come at a price: Poor air quality, chronic water […]
Beijing smog makes it “almost uninhabitable for human beings” Read More
Average incomes in China are very low by Western standards, and certainly not “middle-class” as the blog discussed yesterday. It is also easy to forget that almost half the population still lives in rural areas. Official data shows their incomes have shown major growth over the past 20 years, but are still less than a third of urban incomes today. The chart […]
China’s rural areas need basic goods, environmental clean-up Read More
Pollution is, unfortunately, one of the downsides of industrial development. Luckily for us in the West, it is mostly a distant memory. But as the BBC picture on the left reminds us, Britain was paralysed by ‘smog’ (a lethal mixture of fumes and fog)…
China’s need to clean up pollution will slow economic growth Read More