Helping you navigate the new normal since 2001
There are few real surprises in life, and President Trump’s decision to launch a full-scale trade war with China wasn’t one of them. He had virtually promised to do this in his election campaign, as I noted here back in September 2015: “The economic success of the BabyBoomer-led SuperCycle meant that politics as such took a back
The chemical industry is easily the best leading indicator for the global economy. And thanks to Kevin Swift and his team at the American Chemistry Council, we already have data showing developments up to October, as the chart shows. It confirms that consensus hopes for a “synchronised global recovery” at the beginning of the year
BASF’s second profit warning highlights scale of the downturn now underway Read More
We are living in very uncertain times, where the only certainty is that there is no “business as usual” option for the future. One sign of this is that the extraordinary has become ordinary : □ The FBI appear convinced Russia’s government targeted last year’s US elections: US President Trump and his former FBI head […]
Metastable markets at risk from impact of US, UK political stalemate Read More
2016 saw the start of the Great Reckoning for the failure of stimulus policies. Political and social issues are now beginning to dominate the landscape. As we saw in the UK’s Brexit vote to leave the European Union, voters no longer see economics as the sole issue in elections. This paradigm shift was then followed […]
Today’s New Normal world – the challenge of the 100-year life Read More
Until recently, the job description for a UK (and most Western) politician has been fairly simple – look good on television, and only say something when it has been approved by a focus group. The reward was the ability to jet off to important sounding meetings of the G7 and G20, and have agreeable dinners […]
UK’s Brexit vote may lead to end of schoolboy politics Read More
Global chemical industry sales are around $3tn a year, close to 5% of global GDP. They are even larger when converted into all the products that we actually use on a day-to-day basis such as plastics, coatings, fibres, agrochemicals etc. And thanks to the American Chemistry Council, we have near real-time data of core trends […]
Global economy in further downturn, even before Brexit Read More
40 years ago, the vast majority of the British people were in favour of joining the European Economic Community. 67% voted in favour, in the 1975 referendum to confirm the UK’s entry. Virtually all mainstream politicians were in support, with only the left-wing of the Labour Party strongly anti on the grounds that it was […]
UK’s Brexit referendum is about peace and prosperity Read More
My local MP, Jeremy Corbyn, won the UK Labour Party leadership election on Saturday with a 60% majority. An anti-NATO socialist, he has represented the constituency for 32 years, and has never held even a junior ministerial post. Now, he could possibly become the UK’s next Prime Minister. His path to power depends on two […]
Political risk rises as polls boost Corbyn, le Pen, Trump, Sanders Read More