Businesses face difficult 2 months for Great Britain – N Ireland trade
The argument over the N Ireland Protocol creates the risk of a trade war developing between the UK and EU
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Political developments
Competence starts to replace charisma as a key factor in politics as the pandemic continues
The appalling tragedy in India reminds us that the Covid pandemic is very far from being solved. And more generally, the latest Ipsos ‘What worries the world’ global poll shows high levels of concern over unemployment, inequality, corruption and crime. Unsurprisingly, almost 2/3rds of people think their country is heading on the wrong track. One
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“We may be opponents, but we are not enemies, we’re all Americans”
Groundhog Day 2, last week’s made-for-TV movie set in Pennsylvania, was the perfect lockdown choice. Every morning, one could check the vote tallies. And every evening one could go to bed, knowing that the same screens would be repeating in the morning. Until, eventually, we finally awoke this morning, like Bill Murray in the original
UK election offers voters no middle ground in December
Pity the poor UK voters as they prepare to vote in probably the most critical election of their lives. As they battle the wind and rain to vote in the first December election for 100 years, they already know there are only 3 likely outcomes: Tory majority, Brexit by end-January, EU trade deal uncertain Labour
D-Day commemorations mark end of a political era
Last week, 95 year-old Harry Read repeated the jump that he and his fellow parachutists had made as the advance party for the D-Day landings. He told ITV News in a video interview that before the 1944 jump, their Commanding Officer had explained in matter of fact terms that: “50% of them would be casualties
Wishful thinking dominates Brexit debate as the UK heads towards No Deal on 31 October
One of the best things I learned at school was the simple mnemonic: “To ASSUME can make an ASS of U and ME” Unfortunately, most of those involved in the UK’s Brexit debate have failed to remember it. As a result, it seems likely that the UK will end up leaving the European Union on 31
Political and economic risks rise as US mid-term elections near
This is the Labor Day weekend in the USA – the traditional start of the mid-term election campaign. And just as in September 2016, the Real Clear Politics poll shows that most voters feel their country is going in the wrong direction. The demographic influences that I highlighted then are also becoming ever-more important with time: […]
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US PE exports on front line as Trump changes trade policies
It is almost a year since Donald Trump became President. And whilst he has not followed through on many of his promises, he has indeed introduced the major policy changes that I began to discuss in September 2015, when I first suggested he could win the election and that the Republicans could control Congress: “In the […]
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Brexit disaster looms as UK government power struggle erupts
UK voters were never very bothered about membership of the European Union (EU) before the Brexit vote last year. Opinion polls instead showed they shared the general feeling of voters everywhere – that their country was heading in the wrong direction, and it was time for a change. Now, last week’s Conservative Party conference showed […]
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Global supply chains at risk as trade war threat rises
“May God bless the USA and God bless Boeing” was President Trump’s sign-off in his speech on Friday at Boeing’s South Carolina factory. Earlier he had told the workforce building the 787 Dreamliner: “This is our mantra: Buy American and hire America. We want products made in America, made by American hands. Our goal as a […]
Basic Skills, not protectionism, key to sustaining today’s High Income, Services-based economies
Suddenly, manufacturing and protectionism have become political issues across the Western world. President Trump has already formed a Manufacturing Council with the aim of “reshoring jobs” from outside the USA, and is threatening to introduce import duties of up to 45%. The problem, however, as the chart shows, is that this will not help the people who […]
“Business as usual” the least likely outcome for Europe
Europe is heading in to the Great Unknown, as Monday’s post highlighted. The UK, The Netherlands and France are not the only political uncertainties that we face. Elections are also due in Italy and in Germany. Italian elections. After premier Renzi’s referendum defeat last year, it seems like that Italy will hold elections this year, […]
Europe heads into the Great Unknown as UK prepares for Brexit; Dutch and French voters go to the polls
Next month sees the start of a process that could change all our lives. Whether we live in Europe, or outside it, the political decisions about to be made have the potential to impact every country in the world – for better or worse. And yet, nobody has yet begun to put together the various […]
Trump policies to impact global supply chains, US stock markets
Wall Street’s post-election rally suggests that many investors currently have the wrong idea about Donald Trump. They have decided he is a new Ronald Reagan, with policies that will deliver a major bull market. But those promoting this narrative have forgotten their history. Both men certainly share a link with the entertainment industry. But Reagan […]
Political risk rises as Trump sets out to change America’s relationship with the world
If you have a spare 2 minutes today, or later, you might like to view this extract from President Kennedy’s Inauguration speech on January 20, 1961. The words are powerful in themselves, but the applause of the crowd as they warm to their new President makes it a very special address. It marks the moment […]
The blog in 2016
2016 saw the Great Reckoning for the failure of stimulus policies begin to impact companies and markets. The blog’s readership has increased significantly as a a result, as shown in the chart above, with its visits now totaling nearly 500k. Its readership includes 197 countries and over 11k cities. Readers also remain very loyal, with […]
2016′s Word of the Year: “Impossible”
Nobody likes change, particularly on the scale that is taking place all around us today. Understandably, we prefer to live in a state of Denial. This is why “Impossible” is my Word of the Year for 2016. The main feature of the word is that it is a statement, and a very clear statement. People […]
Populism rises as global dynamics drive market shifts
We are living in a New Normal world. Populists such as Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Marine le Pen and Beppe Grillo are gaining support as economic growth slows and social/political unrest becomes common. My presentation at our annual conference last week in Vienna highlighted some of the key issues, as Jessie Waldheim of ICIS news […]
Economic policy needs to focus on impact of the 100-year life
Nearly two-thirds of people in the world’s top 25 countries feel their country is heading in the wrong direction, according to a new poll from Ipsos MORI. As their chart shows: China, Saudi Arabia, India, Argentina, Peru, Canada and Russia are the only countries to record a positive feeling The other 18 are increasingly desperate […]
Italy’s referendum is next test for Eurozone stability
Italy was one of the 6 founding members of the European Union (EU) in 1957, along with France, the Netherlands, W Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg. Its referendum next month will therefore be a critical test of whether the Eurozone and EU can survive the pressure from the Populists. If the Populists win, then the future […]