Market bubbles start to burst
Oil prices have tumbled back to June levels, whilst the call option favourite Tesla has seen its price crash 26%. And the eurozone moved into deflation.
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Chemicals data suggests recovery as far away as ever
Global Capacity Utilisation is only back to the March level at 77%, well below December 2019’s 82,1% before the recession began.
Chinese competition now the major threat to Apple
Apple’s SE model launch means it is now competing with Android-based Chinese competitors – probably not good news for its future profits
Central banks create a K-shaped rebound
The US is seeing a K-shaped rebound. Fed support meant the S&P 500 made new all-time highs last week. But 20% of US adults told the US Census they couldn’t afford to buy enough food to feed their children.
The best view is always from the top of the mountain
US stock markets are riding high, with valuations in the 95th percentile since 1881. But the US economy is in trouble, with growth expected to be in the 4th percentile.
Political risk rises as Trump heads for one-term Presidency
Markets ignored our forecast of a Donald Trump win in 2016. And now they are ignoring the risk that he might not accept the result, if he loses in November.
Global chemical data shows June remained weak
Global chemical data for June shows demand remains weak.
Europe shows the way in the New Normal
Last week’s European Council meeting set a new course in the right direction.
Global economy suffers second hit
China is now being hit by its worst floods in decades. And Covid-19 virus cases are surging in a number of major US states.
“We’re forever blowing bubbles”
Central banks have created impressive bubbles in financial markets – but what will happen if the promised V-shaped recovery never appears?
Better to travel in hope than to arrive
Companies are about to start telling us how things really are in their markets. It may prove a powerful wake-up call
You only discover who’s been swimming naked when the tide goes out
Investors don’t like to ask too many questions when markets are in their ‘blow-off’ phase. And it’s too late to ask them when the bankruptcies start.
Markets risk a Wile E Coyote moment
Mr. Coyote used to run off cliffs and take several steps on thin air before noticing that there was nothing underneath his feet. Only then would he plunge..
Even turkeys can fly in a hurricane
Experienced investors have always claimed the bull market wouldn’t end until new retail investors rushed to join in.
Always read the small print
Wall Street investors missed the fact that Friday’s US jobs report misclassified up to 4.9 million workers as working, when they were actually jobless. But that’s what happens when you ignore the small print.
Wall Street hopes for the best, whilst Main Street fears the worst
Wall Street is focused on central banks’ response to the pandemic, whilst Main Street focuses on its actual impact.
“Sell in May and Go Away”
The Hertz rental car bankruptcy in the US highlights the risks to the economy
Markets start to focus on the risk of deflation
Financial markets are treading water as they wait to see what happens next
Financial markets gamble on a V-shaped recovery
Financial markets have sharply diverged from events in the real world
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” – Lenin
A month ago, we forecast that oil prices would go negative in Q2
Buy on the rumour, sell on the news
Markets are being driven by speculators funded by the central banks, rather than long-term investors.
Policymakers continue to prefer wishful thinking to reality
Wishful thinking remains the dominant feature in oil markets, as in our other key areas of the global economy
“Saving lives and protecting livelihoods ought to go hand in hand”, IMF
April will be the cruellest month, as the Covid-19 virus starts to have its full impact on health and the economy.
Markets enter the eye of the storm
Markets have now entered “the eye of the storm” after the dramatic falls seen during March
Volatility highlights rising uncertainty
Volatility has spiked this month, as always happens when markets go through a period of major change. Time seems to speed up, as old certainties are discarded, and everyone tries to work out where we are headed next.