OPEC under pressure, China worries about off-balance sheet debt
Markets start to worry: a bad jobs report, then bad inflation data
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New Normal Insight
US inflation “surprise” puts Federal Reserve under pressure
Markets start to worry: a bad jobs report, then bad inflation data
US jobs report punctures dream of quick return to “normal”
Investors are starting to reassess former favourites such as Tesla
Biden calls time on Reagan’s “trickle-down economics”
Biden aims to grow the economy from the bottom up and middle out.
Prepare to say goodbye to the great central bank-led rally
President Biden is the first President since Bush Snr not to worry about the stock market.
Markets’ hopes rise for a major “blow-off” rally
Excitement continues to build in most financial markets, with commentators highlighting the potential for a second ‘Roaring Twenties’
A last hurrah for Dr Pangloss as investors ignore growing market risks
The bulls were out in force over the Easter period, supported by the relatively low level of trading
Oil markets, NASDAQ, highlight underlying weakness in financial markets
Market fundamentals are starting to matter again
The rising dollar means all bets are off for Emerging Markets
The rising dollar is making commodites like oil more expensive in local currencies.
Interest rates jump as Fed focuses on need for higher inflation
Traders are starting to realise the Federal Reserve is no longer coverng their back.
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“Investing illusions can continue for a surprisingly long time”, Warren Buffett
Rising interest rates will continue weighing on equities. Since 2009, the Fed has focused on financial markets, hoping to impact jobs and growth.
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Investor mania is a classic sign of a late-stage bubble
Markets are starting to realise you can’t have a V-shaped recovery without rising inflation and bond yields
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Markets flirt with ‘new supercycle’ talk
If “everyone knows” a new bull market is now underway, who is left to buy?
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Markets reach their casino stage
Retail investors are busy topping up the “punch bowl” originally filled by central bankers
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Rising uncertainty hits market sentiment and prices
Our move to become “cautiously bearish” on the S&P 500 proved prescient.
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Biden’s plain-speaking will return markets to reality
Markets are starting to realise that Biden’s focus is on improving the lives of working and middle-class Americans, not new S&P records.
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Waiting for Biden
Hedge funds have been happily selling the US dollar and buying commodities for some time, creating the illusion that a strong economic rebound is underway.
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Now we have seen everything
An insurrection in the US capital, the formal election of the next President interrupted, and 5 people (including a law enforcement officer) dying in armed clashes. But as happens in financial bubbles, the markets sailed on untroubled.
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2021 unlikely to see a quick return to ‘business as usual’
Investors have been spoilt in recent years by the absence of risk. 2020 confirmed the ‘risk off’ mode as central banks ramped up their support. But will Wall Street continue in party mood, despite the growing problems on Main Street?
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OPEC and the Federal Reserve hold off reality for a (little) longer
“Fundamental reality will start to dawn, as it always does, in the end”
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China and Japan join Europe in deflation
“The rationale behind today’s euphoria seems based more on illusion than reality”
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“Everything is for the best, in this best of all possible worlds”
” Investors expect $trns more stimulus from Janet Yellen & Jay Powell”
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Yellen’s nomination for Treasury Secretary takes markets into peak “greed trade” mode
“Markets cycle between greed and fear”
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Paradigm shifts begin to impact financial markets
“Everyone hopes that the new vaccines will prove effective. But we doubt there will be a quick return to ‘business as usual’.
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Vaccine euphoria takes markets higher
“Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, But to be young was very heaven!” But this early excitement is unlikely to last once pandemic reality returns to the headlines
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After the Election, the Transition begins
There are 10 weeks till the Biden Presidency is due to start. But Donald Trump has refused to concede the race, and Senate control is still in doubt.
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What would 4 years of President Biden mean for financial markets?
It seems likely that Joe Biden will win Tuesday’s Presidential election. We look at the potential impact on financial markets.
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What would another 4 years of President Trump’s policies mean?
50 million Americans have already voted in the Presidential election. Turnout is on course to be the highest percentage since 1908. This week we analyse President Trump’s agenda if he is re-elected. Next week, we will look at Joe Biden’s alternative for the country.
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Central banks try to ‘print babies’ to boost consumption
Supply/demand balances are weakening in oil markets, whilst a Fed Governor has highlighted the serious problem that developed in Treasury markets during the March collapse. We also focus on the economic impact of the Perennials – who will provide the majority of US/Western and Global population growth over the next decade.
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China to announce new focus for economic growth
Volatility has begun to rise in oil and bond markets, as we expected. China’s upcoming ‘Vision 2035’ seems likely to prove a major game-changer for its economic model over time.
Market volatility threatens as economic and political risks rise
Low volatility is either a sign that things are going well, or of complacency. As we go into Q4, “fear indices” for bonds and stocks remain at low levels. But oil prices have begun to weaken, whilst Europe has slipped into deflation.
The real need is to get people back to work
Welcome to the first issue of New Normal Insight, which has evolved out of our Outlook briefing. It continues our focus on providing insight on the key financial markets – oil, stock markets and interest rates – along with other critical areas such as China.