New Normal Insight

2021 unlikely to see a quick return to ‘business as usual’

Investors have been spoilt in recent years by the absence of risk. 2020 confirmed the ‘risk off’ mode as central banks ramped up their support. But will Wall Street continue in party mood, despite the growing problems on Main Street?


What would another 4 years of President Trump’s policies mean?

50 million Americans have already voted in the Presidential election. Turnout is on course to be the highest percentage since 1908. This week we analyse President Trump’s agenda if he is re-elected. Next week, we will look at Joe Biden’s alternative for the country.


Central banks try to ‘print babies’ to boost consumption

Supply/demand balances are weakening in oil markets, whilst a Fed Governor has highlighted the serious problem that developed in Treasury markets during the March collapse. We also focus on the economic impact of the Perennials – who will provide the majority of US/Western and Global population growth over the next decade.


China to announce new focus for economic growth

Volatility has begun to rise in oil and bond markets, as we expected. China’s upcoming ‘Vision 2035’ seems likely to prove a major game-changer for its economic model over time.

Market volatility threatens as economic and political risks rise

Low volatility is either a sign that things are going well, or of complacency. As we go into Q4, “fear indices” for bonds and stocks remain at low levels. But oil prices have begun to weaken, whilst Europe has slipped into deflation. 

The real need is to get people back to work

Welcome to the first issue of New Normal Insight, which has evolved out of our Outlook briefing. It continues our focus on providing insight on the key financial markets – oil, stock markets and interest rates – along with other critical areas such as China.