housing bubble

Chart of the Year – China’s shadow banking collapse means deflation may be round the corner

Last year it was Bitcoin, in 2016 it was the near-doubling in US 10-year interest rates, and in 2015 was the oil price fall.  This year, once again, there is really only one candidate for ‘Chart of the Year’ – it has to be the collapse of China’s shadow banking bubble: It averaged around $20bn/month

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Chemical output signals trouble for global economy

A petrochemical plant on the outskirts of Shanghai. Chinese chemical industry production has been negative on a year-to-date basis since February Falling output in China and slowing growth globally suggest difficult years ahead, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog Chemicals are the best leading indicator for the

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London house prices slip as supply/demand balances change

London house prices are “falling at the fastest rate in almost a decade” according to major property lender, Nationwide.  And almost 40% of new-build sales were to bulk buyers at discounts of up to 30%, according of researchers, Molior.  As the CEO of builders Crest Nicholson told the Financial Times:  “We did this sale because we […]

The post London house prices slip as supply/demand balances change appeared first on Chemicals & The Economy.

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China’s lending bubble is history

As China’s shadow banking is reined in, the impact on the global economy is already clear, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog China’s shadow banking sector has been a major source of speculative lending to the global economy. But 2018 has seen it entering its […]

The post China’s lending bubble is history appeared first on Chemicals & The Economy.

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China’s lending bubble sees Beijing home prices jump 63%

Greed and fear are the primary emotions driving China’s housing and auto markets today, as China’s lending bubble hits new heights.  For ordinary citizens, greed is the key driver:    Average home prices in Beijing rose an eye-popping 63% between October 2015 – February 2017    In Shanghai, one enterprising estate agent (realtor) […]

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UK consumers face difficult times as Brexit unwinds the housing bubble, and financial services de-cluster out of London

Brexit negotiations are likely to prove a very uncomfortable ride for UK consumers as Russell Napier of Eric, the online research platform, warned last week: □  ”Public sector debt remains at near-historic highs (in peace time!) and for the first time this public sector debt comes with a private sector bubble □  Credit card debt […]

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“Everyone wants to be rich”: Divorces soar with land prices as China’s housing bubble enters its final stages

One thing that “everyone knows” in China’s Tier 1 cities is that property prices can never go down.  As one resident told the South China Morning Post: “The only thing I know is that buying property will not turn out to be a loss.  From several thousand yuan a square metre to more than 100,000 […]

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Divorce, not marriage, now fueling China’s property bubble in Shenzhen

China’s housing market has always been about marriage since it began in 1998, until recently that is.  The reason, as I noted a while ago, is that: “70% of China’s women regard “housing, a stable income and some savings” as vital for any man wanting to get married.” Women have the upper hand when it […]

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54000 millionaires needed to buy new London apartments

‘Nothing succeeds like excess’.  That seems to be the motto of London property developers at the moment.  According to researchers LonRes, developers are currently building or planning the staggering total of 54000 new luxury homes in central London. These will all be offered at prices of £1m ($1.5m) and higher, according to the Financial Times.  Yet just 3900 […]

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US economic recovery at risk as energy bubble bursts

The bursting of the US energy bubble is looking more and more like a replay of the sub-prime bubble in 2008. As investor Warren Buffett has noted, “its only when the tide goes out, that you learn who has been swimming naked .”  And nearly a year ago, former central banker William White warned the problems in the global economy were: “Worse […]

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Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus creates interest rate risk

Interest rate risk is rising in the developed economies as the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus continues.  Since the blog first highlighted this Unwinding last month: Oil prices have continued to tumble, with Brent now down over $15/bbl from its late-June peak The US$ has continued to rise from multi-year lows versus the yen, euro and pound And of course, […]

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China’s housing market enters New Normal as prices slide

Markets appear to be continuing to move, slowly but surely, into their expected ‘scary phase’.  The reason is the massive distortions that have been created in financial markets, and in China’s housing market, by the $35tn+ of stimulus from governments and central banks since 2009. Unwinding these distortions will not be simple.  The stimulus has not returned us […]

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$15bn gold loan scam revealed: Beijing property sales fall 50%

Almost every day brings new revelations about the growing evidence of major fraud in China’s ‘collateral trade’.  Yet the world’s financial markets remain very complacent.  They have forgotten the basic rule, that the first example is usually the tip of the iceberg – not a one-off mistake. They have also forgotten that the real problems only emerge when […]

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