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Oil markets are once again uneasily balanced between two completely different outcomes – and one again involves Iran. Back in the summer of 2008, markets were dominated by the potential for an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, as I summarised at the time: “Nothing is certain in life, except death and taxes. But it
Recession risk rises as Iran tensions and US-China trade war build Read More
Its been a long time since oil market supply/demand was based on physical barrels rather than financial flows: First there was the subprime period, when the Fed artificially boosted demand and caused Brent to hit $147/bbl Then there was QE, where central banks gave free cash to commodity hedge funds and led Brent to hit […]
Oil market supply/demand finally begins to matter again as commodity funds withdraw Read More
The myth of oil market rebalancing has been a great money-maker for financial markets. Hedge funds were the first to benefit in H2 last year, as Reuters has reported, when: “OPEC and some of the most important hedge funds active in commodities reached an understanding on oil market rebalancing during informal briefings held in the […]
Oil market rebalancing myth looks close to its sell-by date Read More
OPEC has a long wait ahead, if it hopes that US drivers will ever go back to SuperCycle levels of driving and gasoline consumption growth. That’s the clear message from new data from the US Dept of Transport showing vehicle miles traveled last year. The chart shows: □ Average number of miles driven per adult […]
America hits “peak gasoline” moment as demand patterns change Read More
How much of your day’s wage does it cost you to buy a US gallon of gasoline? This chart from Bloomberg shows the answer for 61 countries, based on prices for 95 octane grade at the end of Q2: Bankrupt Venezuela is most affordable at 1% of a day’s income (based on GDP/capita) […]
Lack of affordability limits gasoline demand growth Read More
Famously, when Bill Clinton ran his successful presidential campaign in 1992, his advisers would remind him of the key message with just one phrase “Its the economy, stupid!”. Today’s policymakers would do well to maintain a similar focus on the oil p…
There are increasing signs that China’s economic growth is slowing. Local gasoline and diesel prices are now (as in Europe) at record levels. Gasoline is Rmb 8.2/litre, the equivalent of $1.20/l, or $4.40/US gal.
Unsurprisingly, this leaves people…
Autos are now the single biggest market for petchem sales. They are also reported very quickly. So October’s EU auto sales provide the best real-time picture of the downturn now underway. As the chart shows:
• October’s sales (red square) were th…