fertility rate

Time to recognise the economic impact of ageing populations

Is global economic growth really controlled by monetary policy and interest rates?  Can you create constant growth simply by adjusting government tax and spending policy?  Do we know enough about how the economy operates to be able to do this?  Or has something more fundamental been at work in recent decades, to create the extraordinary […]

The post Time to recognise the economic impact of ageing populations appeared first on Chemicals & The Economy.

Time to recognise the economic impact of ageing populations Read More

US Treasury benchmark yield heads to 4% as 30-year downtrend ends

The US 10-year Treasury bond is the benchmark for global interest rates and stock markets.  And for the past 30 years it has been heading steadily downwards as the chart shows: US inflation rates finally peaked at 13.6% in 1980 (having been just 1.3% in 1960) as the BabyBoomers began to move en masse into the […]

The post US Treasury benchmark yield heads to 4% as 30-year downtrend ends appeared first on Chemicals & The Economy.

US Treasury benchmark yield heads to 4% as 30-year downtrend ends Read More

Economic policy needs to focus on impact of the 100-year life

Nearly two-thirds of people in the world’s top 25 countries feel their country is heading in the wrong direction, according to a new poll from Ipsos MORI.  As their chart shows: China, Saudi Arabia, India, Argentina, Peru, Canada and Russia are the only countries to record a positive feeling The other 18 are increasingly desperate […]

Economic policy needs to focus on impact of the 100-year life Read More

45-year shortage of babies hits Europe’s chlorine/PVC demand

Companies and investors often say “we don’t need to think about demographics – its too far in the future to matter”. This might have been true 20 years ago, but not today.  As European chlorine industry demand confirms, the truth is that “history catches up with us”. The reason is simple.  Europe stopped having enough […]

45-year shortage of babies hits Europe’s chlorine/PVC demand Read More

Toy industry hit by lack of babies

The blog’s latest post for the Financial Times FT Data blog is below.  The industry is going through major difficulties, which is bad news not only for its suppliers of plastic and other components.  It is also a problem for China, which manufactures 70% of the world’s toys. The toy industry is going through difficult […]

Toy industry hit by lack of babies Read More

Toy industry crisis as fewer babies are born in developed world

Slowly but surely, companies seem to be learning the hard way that demographics, not central bankers, drive demand.  The blog is surprised this simple insight is still not widely understood.  But the example of the global toy market highlights the paradigm shift underway: In 1950, there were 83m children aged between 0 – 4 years in the wealthy developed […]

Toy industry crisis as fewer babies are born in developed world Read More

Adapting to the ageing baby boomers

The blog’s latest post for the Financial Times FT Data blog is below. February 13, 2014 2:22 pm by FT Two remarkable global demographic developments have occurred since 1950. Yet only recently have their impact on companies and the economy begun to be properly understood. Life expectancy has risen by 50 per cent since 1950 […]

Adapting to the ageing baby boomers Read More