emerging economies

Consensus wisdom defies reality around the world

“Consensus wisdom” is a handy way of keeping up with events.  Nobody like to be the person who says “I don’t know” when the boss asks a question about something important.  But unfortunately, “consensus wisdom” is often wrong, as Ipsos MORI confirm in their new ’Perils of Perception‘ survey,  As the authors note: “It highlights how […]

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US$ breaks out of 30-year downtrend

Attention has rightly been focused on the collapse of oil prices over the past 6 months.  These have further to fall, but the major part of the move must now be behind us.  After all, Brent was at $104/bbl when I first forecast the move in mid-August, and closed at $56/bbl last night, so probably “only” has $20/bbl-$30/bbl further downside. […]

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Unilever says Q2 market growth slows in emerging countries, developed countries weak

The global economy really isn’t getting any better.  That’s the key conclusion from the blog’s quarterly survey of company results for Q2. Of course, some companies are doing well – either because of shale gas economics, or their own market positioning.  But consumer giant Unilever summarised the general picture very well: “Market growth continued to slow in emerging […]

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Earnings disappoint again, as companies face challenge of slowing global growth

Most of today’s executives and policymakers grew up during the SuperCycle.  Many therefore continue to believe that a return to constant growth is somehow inevitable.   Sadly, of course, they are doomed to disappointment.      And disappointment is the predominant message from the blog’s usual quarterly review of company results.  Thus BASF note that “achieving our earnings target […]

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