Helping you navigate the new normal since 2001
The decline in China’s electricity consumption growth highlights the remarkable slowdown underway in its Old Normal economy, as the chart shows: Consumption growth took off in 2009 under the influence of the stimulus programme It rose 6.5% in 2009, and then accelerated further in 2010 when it was up 14.7% 2011 growth stayed at double-digit […]
China power demand surge ends as Old Normal economy slows Read More
‘Bad news’ seems to have become ‘good news’ as far as China’s economy is concerned. In the past, most analysts simply ignored the possibility of a major slowdown. Now that the slowdown is underway, they still ignore it – this time, because they are sure further stimulus is just around the corner. But time passes, […]
China’s lending, electricity consumption continues to slow Read More
More and more evidence is emerging of the major slowdown now underway in China’s economy. China’s leadership have warned this would take place since they took office 2 years ago. And they have reinforced the message in recent months with their focus on explaining the move into the New Normal and its consequences. A major interview […]
China Q1 electricity consumption up only 1% as economy slows Read More
China’s reported 7.4% GDP growth for 2014 was the lowest in 25 years. But even so, it probably still overstates the true economic position. How could China possibly produce a final fiigure for GDP within just 20 days of 2015? Electricity consumption, as Premier Li has advised in the past, is a far more reliable guide to the actual […]
Halving of China’s electricity demand confirms major slowdown underway Read More
The blog got 54.8m results from Google when it entered the phrase “China GDP” this week. The only problem, seemingly unrecognised by most analysts, is that China’s GDP report is a completely fictitious number, invented by the leadership each quarter to suit its own narrative. This sounds a bold statement, but it isn’t: China is the only country to […]
China GDP reports remain “man-made and therefore unreliable” Read More
There’s a lot of wishful thinking underway about China’s future growth. All the experts who told us that its growth was ‘inevitable’ and would never end, are now having to face the issue that clearly growth is now slowing fast. Their response, of course, is to remain in Denial mode. They imagine that a magic […]
China’s electricity consumption shows growth at 4.5% and slowing Read More
The blog’s views on the unsustainability of China’s epic economic growth since 2009 have now become truly mainstream. Everyone now agrees, including the new leadership, that it was created by a credit bubble. State-owned China Daily has even now warned …
China lending remains out of control ahead of November’s plenum Read More
China’s economy is continuing to slow, as the new leadership takes power. As the chart shows of H1 performance: Electricity consumption (red line) was up 5% versus H1 2012 Bank lending was up 4% These levels are of course well below the published GDP figure of 7.5% for Q2, but the two types of data […]
Key China data suggest economic growth already less than 5% Read More