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Anti-pollution drive hits China’s role as global growth engine

4 December 2017

China is no longer seeking ‘growth at any cost’, with global implications, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog A pedestrian covers up against pollution in Beijing © Bloomberg China’s President Xi Jinping faced two existential threats to Communist party rule when he took office 5 […]

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President Xi takes “core” leader role as China heads for political turbulence

28 October 2016

Outside observers often imagine that China’s political structure is uniquely disciplined – unlike, say the US Republican Party, or the UK Labour Party, or indeed, political parties anywhere.  But the fact that most arguments take place behind closed doors, and aren’t reported in the state-controlled media, doesn’t mean that the arguments don’t happen. Yesterday’s announcement […]

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China’s PP production rises 25% as it moves into higher-value export markets

9 September 2015

Everyone is now beginning to notice the change in economic policy in China.  And concern is rising about the outlook for all those new petchem investments about to come online, whose rationale has been the need to supply ever-increasing growth in Chinese demand.  The chart above highlights the reality behind this wishful thinking: Everyone “knew” […]

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Seven global implications of China’s new policies

5 February 2014

Everyone remembers the old joke, “Why did the elephant wear dark glasses?”, and the answer, “So that she wouldn’t be recognised”.  A new version popped into the blog’s mind this week, when finishing its new Research Note on the impact of China’s new policies on the global economy: “Why did nobody notice that China was the ‘elephant […]

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The Deng, Jiang model for China’s economic growth under Xi

24 January 2014

Major change is already underway in China, with potentially enormous implications for all of us. Corruption is being stamped out via a policy of ‘shock and awe’ Similarly, wasteful lending is under attack in both the official and the so-called ‘shadow banking’ sectors Thirdly, pollution is being tackled by literally ‘sending in the bulldozers‘ to […]

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From Jiang to Hu and the lost decade

23 January 2014

President Jiang Zemin inherited a difficult economic and political situation when taking power in 1993, as did Deng in 1977 and  current president Xi last year.  Jiang had to set in motion China’s second economic cycle of the post-Mao era, or risk seeing the country fall back into poverty and the political turmoil of another Cultural Revolution. Similarly today, […]

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Deng’s economic policy in China’s post-Mao period

22 January 2014

China’s economic policy has gone through 2 complete cycles since Chairman Mao’s death is 1976.  Under new president Xi, it now seems to be about to start a 3rd cycle.  If this cycle follows the pattern of the previous cycles, it will have very major implications for anyone doing business with China, either directly or […]