The impact of $200/bbl oil?

I am in Tallinn, Estonia, where the Petrochemicals Feedstocks Association has kindly invited me to talk about ‘Feedstocks for Profit’, our forthcoming Study on feedstocks supply and demand. Much discussion, as you wouild expect amongst oil and naphtha traders, centred around the potential for $200/bbl oil. None of them thought it unlikely, and many thought it inevitable.
This led to thoughts about the changes that might take place in behaviour if this level was reached. Walking around Tallinn perhaps provides some clues. At this time of year, it is light till nearly midnight, and local people like to sit outside – even though a cold wind blows from the Baltic Sea. But not for them are the comforts of gas-fired patio heaters. Instead, as you can see from my photo, local bars and restaurants provide plenty of home-made blankets.