The state of the global economy in 2020

Last Wednesday, I gave the opening presentation for the ICIS PET Conference and looked at whether the global economy is seeing a Rebound or a full Recovery after the lockdowns? It covered a wide range of topics:

  • Chemicals’ Capacity Utilisation is the best leading indicator for the global economy, and it continues to weaken
  • Central banks have now provided $48tn of “support” since 2009
  • Oil prices are reconnecting with historical levels around $25/bbl
  • The Perennials will be 36% of the West’s population in 2030, up from 33% today: the Wealth Creator percentage will fall from 36% to 33%
  • Deflation is nearing as the influence of the Perennials 55+ grows
  • Ageing populations have lower demand levels, as older people already own most of what they need, and their earnings reduce in retirement
  • The world divides into “rich but old”, “young and poor” and “poor and ageing”
  • Globalisation provided “stuff” for babyboomers:Sustainability is service-led and provides “solutions”

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