The latest OPEC monthly oil report paints a bearish picture of the market. It expects OPEC to supply 28.4mbd in 2009, down 7.5% from 2008 levels. And it forecasts more of the same for 2010, expecting to supply just 28 mbd.
Its analysis suggests that “the market is still fundamentally weak amid ample stocks of crude and products“. And it notes that “US oil consumption is still showing a massive reduction“. However, it says China saw “strong growth” in June “after a devastating contraction in Q1“, and India is seeing “significantly higher growth“.
OPEC notes that recent high levels of oil price volatility “indicates the increasing sensitivity of oil prices to conflicting economic signals“. Its own view is cautious, suggesting that “expectations for a strong recovery (in the US economy) may still be premature“.
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