Auto sales growth stalls world-wide
Autos are easily the largest global demand sector for chemicals, now housing has declined. Developments in the world’s 4 major markets (China, US, EU, Japan) are thus critical to the future outlook, as they account for nearly 75% of total sales. As t…
China’s new leaders face slowing economy, rising protests
There are two great myths in the modern world. One, as discussed yesterday, is that central banks can restore growth to SuperCycle levels. The other is that China’s economy will grow consistenly at high rates for the next decade. Both are wishful th…
Europe in "10-year stagnation period, just like the Japanese"
The blog today tips its hat to Borealis CEO Mark Garrett, who becomes the first major company boss to publicly accept that Europe is following Japan into a prolonged period of economic slowdown. He told ICIS news: “I believe Europe has entered a 10-y…
Conference highlights key chemical market changes
Our World Aromatics Conference in Berlin, now in its 11th year, provided valuable insight into changing market developments, thanks to our array of top-level speakers: Ted Randall, Global Business Manager for Saudi Aramco, highlighted how their drive …
Q3 results remain in downward trend
The blog’s quarterly survey of chemical industry results shows the downward trend continued in Q3. Some companies remain untouched by the mainstream problems, but they are now clearly in the minority: • Bayer remain optimistic, and DuPont hopeful …
Polyester markets head for crisis as cotton prices crash
Cotton prices, as the chart shows, have returned to the 50c-70c/lb range that has dominated since 1982. This proves, once again, that ‘reversion to the mean’ is usually the best investment strategy. Sadly, however, it is the people who did not belie…
Oil markets have lost their price discovery role
The US spent $6bn on its presidential and congressional elections this year. Apart from expressing the will of the people, it may also prove valuable if it helps to highlight the danger of allowing wishful thinking to override factual evidence on the …
IMF warns on recession risk as Political, Social worries rise
When the economy is running well, most people tend to get on with their lives. That was the case during the 1982-2007 SuperCycle, when growth was almost constant. But today’s greater economic uncertainties translate into a growing role for Political …
UK housing markets approach their Minsky Moment
The UK housing market has led a charmed life in recent years. Unlike the US, Spain, Ireland and many other Western countries, prices have not collapsed. Instead, near zero interest rates, and the high proportion of mortgages on variable rates, meant …
US auto market reaches a fork in the road
The US auto market is reaching a critical fork in the road. The consensus view believes that full recovery is well underway. They see the slowdown in October’s sales as purely being weather-related, due to the arrival of hurricane Sandy. Clearly t…
SuperCycle era ends for analyst ‘buy’ judgements
The above chart may well become a collectors’ piece in time. It appears in a fascinating article in the latest Harvard Business Review, which focuses on why stock market analysts in the USA (U), Europe (E), Asia (A) and Latin America (L) issue ‘buy’ r…
Global Aromatics conference in Berlin next week
Next week’s World Aromatics conference is a must-attend event for anyone involved with the industry. It features speakers from leading companies including Dow, Saudi Aramco and Shell, as well as from the International Energy Agency. In addition, ther…