China’s polymer market faces years of slow growth
China’s important polyethylene market (PE) showed little sign of any major upturn in October. Trade data from Global Trade Information Services shows: • Demand was up just 4% versus 2010 levels • Production was up 3%, as China’s refinery operatin…
Germany’s Bundesbank warns on the growth outlook
Last week the blog looked back at the performance of its 3 benchmark products since the start of 2009. This week it looks at what has happened to its 3 financial market products: • Before 2009, there was normally an inverse correlation between oi…
The blog on CNBC Africa
The blog was interviewed on CNBC Africa’s ‘Beyond Markets’ programme last week, during its visit to AECI in Johannesburg. Hosted by Karema Brown, the programme focuses on the news that drives markets across the continent. The 3 minute interview dis…
Commodities supercycle myth enters the end-game
If something seems to be ‘too good to be true’, then it usually is. This may be the learning for the world’s largest pension funds, as they plan their next moves in commodity investment. Their involvement jumped from 2009 after central banks began st…
Global capacity utilsation falls for 3rd month
Capacity utilisation continues to be on a downward path, according to the latest data from the American Chemistry Council. As their chart above shows, there has been no improvement since the summer: • October should see peak rates, as companies cat…
Shanghai’s stock market falls back to 2009 levels
Every stock market chart tells a story. And the chart above is no exception. It highlights investors’ roller-coaster ride over the past 5 years since the Shanghai stock market hit its all-time peak of 5903 in October 2007: • After this it collapse…
Slowing markets underline failure of central bank policies
As we approach year-end, it is interesting to review performance of the blog’s 3 benchmark products since the start of the major central bank liquidity programmes. The chart begins in January 2009 when the G20 stimulus programme was being prepared, an…
Demographic slowdown hits company results
Are you a typical employee in the chemical industry (aged in your 30s or 40s)? Have you noticed that you spend rather more money than your parents? Then you may have spotted the reason for the more difficult economic conditions that your company is n…
Europe’s olefin operating rates remain at recession levels
Europe’s political leaders were deadlocked last weekend over plans for the EU’s new Budget. A new north-south gap opened up, where the major contributors to the Budget (Germany, UK, Netherlands) demanded €30bn ($39bn) in cuts. This was, of course,…
China’s new leadership heads in a new direction
As promised, the blog today looks at the impact of former President Jiang Zemin’s return to active politics during the recent leadership transition. Its monitoring of expert commentary inside and outside China suggests he has achieved 4 major changes:…
Jiang returns to help China avoid the ‘middle income trap’
It is not easy to discover what is really happening in China’s government. There were no opinion polls before the new leaders were appointed, and certainly no public policy debates. But the blog’s careful reading of Chinese and foreign media does sug…
Chemical industry operating rates fall as oil prices rise
The battle between the major central banks and the fundamentals of supply/demand is starting resemble the battlefields of the 1st World War. The generals running the campaign believe (with the exception of the Bank of Japan) that today’s crisis is sim…