Autos are now the largest single global market for chemical and polymer sales, after the slowdown in US and European housing. Each US auto is worth $3636 to the industry, according to American Chemistry Council data. Thus the US market was worth a re…
The risk of global recession continues to rise, with the World Bank last week warning that “the real-side recovery is weak and business sector confidence is low”. Spain, the world’s 12th largest economy, provides a good example of how the problems ar…
Its now 4 years since the blog published its first New Year Outlook in ICB. Then it was in a small minority when advising CEOs “to prepare for a marathon not a sprint” in dealing with the financial crisis. And very few accepted its suggestion that it…
Chlorine and caustic soda production are a key indicator of economic growth. They have been produced in large volumes for over a century, and have a extremely wide range of uses from pharmaceutical and aluminium production to detergents and disinfecti…
Crude oil and the major commodity markets have been a “fool’s paradise” in the past 4 years, created by the arrival of the central banks’ massive liquidity programmes. Pension funds rushed to buy, in the belief they would be a “store of value”. Hedge…
China, like the USA, had a leadership transition in November. And, of course, this led to led to some effective ‘massaging’ of the economy in the preceding months. As the blog noted in November, it was no coincidence that bank lending jumped $1.1tn b…
Nobody ever said that financial and chemical were meant to be easy to understand. But current developments are clearly far more complex than normal. We have grown used to manipulation by policymakers, via their various quantitative easing (QE) progra…
2013 is the year that the Western world reaches the ‘demographic cliff’. Its BabyBoomers (born between 1946-70) are the largest and wealthiest generation that the world has ever known. Now they are ageing rapidly. They have less money to spend as th…
Crude oil prices remained at a record level for the second year running in 2012. As the chart shows, Brent prices averaged $112/bbl versus $111/bbl in 2011 (blue line). By comparison, 2008 averaged $97/bbl, or $102 if adjusted for inflation (red):
December saw continued strong volume in US auto markets, with sales (red line) at pre-Crisis levels for the month. The key driver is the need to replace ageing vehicles, but manufacturers were also generous with rebates and credit offers to help clear…
Half of China’s population lived in abject poverty as recently as 1979, with incomes less than $2/day. Since then, economic policy has largely focused on reducing this number. As the chart shows, only 7% are still in this position (brown column). I…
New Year is a traditional moment for price increases. And last week didn’t disappoint, with Brent crude oil jumping $3/bbl. Whilst financial markets soared globally on hopes that the US ‘fiscal cliff’ deal might be a sign that policymakers will final…