Blog

Q1 results show the outlook darkening

A year ago, the blog’s quarterly review of company results revealed mixed views on the outlook. Dow were expecting “global growth will gain momentum”, whilst Unilever warned the “external environment remains difficult”. …
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The blog in Barron’s

Barrons, the leading US investment magazine, recently published a major cover story analysing the potential impact of the Millennial generation on the US economy. These are the young people now aged between 18 …
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China’s ‘Ponzi loans’ now 69% of GDP

China’s electricity consumption (green line) is the best real-time guide to economic developments. It is now beginning to confirm the blog’s suggestion that a major shakeout is underway as the new leadership takes …
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Financial markets reach the ‘melt-up stage’

A month ago, the blog highlighted the potentially major implications of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) push to devalue the yen as follows: “However, the BOJ has a slightly different agenda. It aims to devalue …
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"A word means just what I choose it to mean"

‘When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’ This quotation from Lewis Carroll’s great novel ‘Through …
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US shale gas – ‘its a demand thing’

The 25 years of the BabyBoomer demand supercycle between 1983-2007 cover the careers of most people in the industry. Over this quarter-century, we all grew to accept that low-cost and reliable supply was …
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Crude oil and commodities decline as dollar rises

Friday provided a good test of the blog’s analysis that Japan’s aggressive policy of devaluing the yen could result in major downward pressure on crude oil prices: • The yen crashed through the $1: ¥100 level, …
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The blog on MoneyWeek TV

The importance of demographics in driving demand is clearly becoming more widely understood. This week, the blog was interviewed by the editors of MoneyWeek (the UK’s leading investment magazine) in the implications of today’s ageing …
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