New Normal aims to help you identify the key changes in the wider landscape that will impact you and your business.

Outlook

Rising volatility confirms strength of the paradigm shifts now underway – a strategy for the next 18 months.

“We are living through a watershed era. And that means that the world afterwards will no longer be the same as the world before.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, 27 February

First, we had the Covid-19 pandemic. It has already killed millions of people, and created chaos in supply chains. Next we had war in Ukraine and major sanctions against Russia. This is accelerating reshoring and localisation, and the transition to a Net Zero economy. For example, the International Energy Agency is now urging governments to accelerate the transition to Electric Vehicles and plastic recycling, to reduce demand for fossil fuels.

Now the third ‘Horseman of the Apocalypse’ seems set to appear. Not only are fertiliser costs spiralling along with natural gas prices. But Ukraine and Russia account for 29% of global wheat supply. This creates an increasing risk of famine as the World Bank/IMF have warned. In turn, this makes it increasingly unlikely that we can ever return to “business as usual” and the Old Normal, particularly in light of the other paradigm shifts which are underway.

Paradigm Shifts

Some of these changes are already becoming obvious, such as rising levels of debt and the threat of inflation. Others are still to appear. These relate to the way behaviour is changing in response to the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine war in 5 key areas where major paradigm shifts are underway:

DEMAND PATTERNS

Demand patterns paradigm shift in global business

The lockdowns have broken down the inertia surrounding work and home-based routines…

RESHORING SUPPLY CHAINS

Reshoring supply chains paradigm shift in global business

Global supply chains have proved very fragile during the pandemic. They have collapsed…

RENEWABLE ENERGY

Energy abundance paradigm shift in global business

Energy markets are seeing a major paradigm shift, with the pandemic and the Ukraine war accelerating the shift to renewables…

CIRCULAR ECONOMY

Circular economy paradigm shift in global business

The need to reshore supply chains in a world of potential energy abundance suggests that moves towards a circular economy will accelerate…

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING

Advanced manufacturing paradigm shift in global business

Many manufacturing operations still operate as they would have done 500 years ago, or even 50 years ago…

“Be Bloody Careful” As Recession Hits Europe and China
with Paul Hodges
China's Real Estate Bubble Burst Will Affect Everyone Worldwide – RealVision interview with Paul Hodges
China’s real estate bubble burst will affect everyone worldwide
with Paul Hodges

What our subscribers say

Stephen Bishop, Raymond James feedback on New Normal Insight
Stephen Bishop, Raymond James

Consulting

new normal consulting – we support you on the 'new normal' learning curve and implement new strategies

The support you need to move quickly up the ‘new normal’ learning curve and implement new strategies.

International e Chem consulting – Trusted advisers to global chemical industry and its investment community

Trusted advisers to the global chemical industry and its investment community.

Reports

The pH Report - The litmus test for the global economy - since 2014 - by New Normal

$10,995 per year
The litmus test for the global economy

  • Monthly report
  • In depth analysis of macro economic issues
  • Telephone access to experts

New- Normal Blog – light touch entry level

FREE
No sign up required

New Normal eBook – Boom, Gloom and the New Normal

FREE
Boom, Gloom and the New Normal

New Normal in the news

2022
 
Jun PODCAST: Think Tank: Europe, German chemicals face gas supply crisis
  PODCAST: Think Tank: INEOS project halt highlights Europe’s plight
  PODCAST: Think Tank: Chaotic fertilizer markets, weather events, could worsen food crisis
  Paul Hodges Says Investors Should Stop Fed-Watching Real Vision podcast
 
May PODCAST: Think Tank: Europe propylene market drowns, faltering demand signals broader economic woes
  PODCAST: Think Tank: Europe chemicals could face short periods of gas rationing this winter
 
Apr This major industry may be signalling a recession Yahoo Finance
  PODCAST: Think Tank: Recycling and circular value chains could drive local pricing of plastics