New Normal aims to help you identify the key changes in the wider landscape that will impact you and your business.
Rising volatility confirms strength of the paradigm shifts now underway – a strategy for the next 18 months.
“We are living through a watershed era. And that means that the world afterwards will no longer be the same as the world before.”German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, 27 February
First, we had the Covid-19 pandemic. It has already killed millions of people, and created chaos in supply chains. Next we had war in Ukraine and major sanctions against Russia. This is accelerating reshoring and localisation, and the transition to a Net Zero economy. For example, the International Energy Agency is now urging governments to accelerate the transition to Electric Vehicles and plastic recycling, to reduce demand for fossil fuels.
Now the third ‘Horseman of the Apocalypse’ seems set to appear. Not only are fertiliser costs spiralling along with natural gas prices. But Ukraine and Russia account for 29% of global wheat supply. This creates an increasing risk of famine as the World Bank/IMF have warned. In turn, this makes it increasingly unlikely that we can ever return to “business as usual” and the Old Normal, particularly in light of the other paradigm shifts which are underway.
Some of these changes are already becoming obvious, such as rising levels of debt and the threat of inflation. Others are still to appear. These relate to the way behaviour is changing in response to the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine war in 5 key areas where major paradigm shifts are underway:
The lockdowns have broken down the inertia surrounding work and home-based routines…
Global supply chains have proved very fragile during the pandemic. They have collapsed…
Energy markets are seeing a major paradigm shift, with the pandemic and the Ukraine war accelerating the shift to renewables…
The need to reshore supply chains in a world of potential energy abundance suggests that moves towards a circular economy will accelerate…
Many manufacturing operations still operate as they would have done 500 years ago, or even 50 years ago…
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