We help companies and investors to manage today’s crisis, and to begin building a robust and sustainable future for their business in tomorrow’s Net Zero world.


“Prepare for possibilities and probabilities, not calling one course of action, since I’ve never seen anyone call it. I would be quite cautious about what might happen next year”. Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan CEO, 25 October 2023

“Basic industries in Europe are grappling with historical challenges: demand is declining, investments in the continent are stalling, production has dropped significantly, and sites are threatened. We want to drive the transformation of our companies.”

The Antwerp Declaration, 20 February 2024

“We have to pay attention to traditional indicators while also monitoring empirical data and what we expect to happen in terms of geopolitics, energy price developments and demographics.”

European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde, 25 August 2022

“You can’t run the most reckless monetary and fiscal experiment in history without the bill eventually coming due. The first invoice arrived as inflation. The second has come as a financial panic, with economic damage that may not end with Silicon Valley Bank.”

Wall Street Journal editorial, 12 March 2023

The chemical industry is the best leading indicator for the global economy, due to its size, geographic reach and early position in the value chain

The industry is now warning of recession and massive over-capacity as central banks’ stimulus programme finally unwind.

Risk management is key to survival, and future success

Scenario planning, based on a wide range of potential outcomes, will be key to success given today’s levels of volatility. We can no longer simply tweak a base case to reflect whether we are feeling marginally more optimistic or pessimistic.

The end of the two great “dividends” that have powered global growth since the 1980s. The “demographic dividend” created by the BabyBoomer generation has now become a “demographic deficit”, as the Boomers join the lower-spending, lower-earning Perennials 55+ cohort. And we have lost the “peace dividend” created by the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, that allowed $tns to be diverted from armaments to health and social spending

China’s economy has been “subprime on steroids” since 2009. It led the global economy out of recession after 2008, but its $43tn of stimulus meant that real estate became 29% of GDP. This “bubble” is now inevitably bursting. Beijing plans to replace the lost jobs by boosting manufacturing exports, which risks creating major trade frictions in global markets.

Geopolitics are rising up the agenda again. This means that economics are no longer the main factor in decision-making. Major wars are now underway in Ukraine and the Middle East, whilst OPEC+ continues to target higher oil prices in support of its political objectives.

Sustainability is also rising up the agenda – and creating major changes/ tensions in global markets. Auto markets highlight the exponential nature of the developments underway, with Electric Vehicles taking 18% of the global market in 2023 versus just 4% in 2020, as an increasing number of governments mandate the end of gasoline/diesel cars by 2030/35.

Research: How the Pros Do It — Geo Chen and Paul Hodges
RealVision | 28 Feb 2024
Global Industrial Slowdown Could Drag Down U.S. Economy In 2024, Argues Paul Hodges
Blockworks Macro | 13 Jan 2024
RV Real Vision Daily Briefing 5 December 2023 with Paul Hodges
Daily Briefing
Paul Hodges | Real Vision (5 Dec 2023)
Is the Fed back in play?
Paul Hodges | Real Vision Finance (6 Sep 2023)

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Paradigm Shifts

These paradigm shifts are also reinforcing each other. The Ukraine war, for example, means Western governments are accelerating the move to renewables so as to reduce Russian influence on energy markets. This development adds to the value of timely analysis and good judgement. 


Demand patterns paradigm shift in global business

The lockdowns have broken down the inertia surrounding work and home-based routines…


Reshoring supply chains paradigm shift in global business

Global supply chains have proved very fragile during the pandemic. They have collapsed…


Renewable energy – Paradigm shifts in the global economy

Energy markets are seeing a major paradigm shift, with the pandemic and the Ukraine war accelerating the shift to renewables…


Circular economy – Paradigm shifts in the global economy

The need to reshore supply chains in a world of potential energy abundance suggests that moves towards a circular economy will accelerate…


Advanced manufacturing paradigm shift in global business

Many manufacturing operations still operate as they would have done 500 years ago, or even 50 years ago…


Financial markets fiscal policy – Paradigm shifts in the global economy

Governments are refocusing on fiscal policy instead of monetary policy as the debt bubbles created by central bank stimulus begin to burst.

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New Normal in the News 



PODCAST: Think Tank: Why stock markets soar while chemicals slump

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Investors should pack a copy of the Old Testament for the beach Financial Times letter 
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