New Normal aims to help you identify the key changes in the wider landscape that will impact you and your business.

Outlook

First there was the pandemic and associated supply chain chaos. Then this year has seen the rise of ‘Putinflation’ as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine creates a growing risk of energy, food and financial crises.

“We are facing the biggest crisis the post-war Federal Republic has ever had. We have to be honest and say: First of all, we will lose the prosperity that we have had for years.”

German Employers Association President, Rainer Dulger, 13 July

“We can no longer rely exclusively on the (inflation) projections provided by our models – they have repeatedly had to be revised upwards over these past two years. There are things that the models don’t capture. Sometimes the unexpected happens. So we have to pay attention to traditional indicators while also monitoring empirical data and what we expect to happen in terms of geopolitics, energy price developments and demographics.”

European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde, 25 August

Risk management is key to survival, and future success

Scenario planning, based on a wide range of potential outcomes, will be key to success given today’s levels of volatility. We can no longer simply tweak a base case to reflect whether we are feeling marginally more optimistic or pessimistic.

Recession till 2025.  We need to be realistic about the outlook and not assume the current recession will be over by Christmas. The issues we face are more likely to take years to resolve as they involve deep-seated problems

China is changing. It has bankrolled global growth since 2009, but now its model is shifting to self-sufficiency, alongside a major move into recycling to meet Net Zero targets. Its real estate market has been ‘subprime on steroids’ and its bursting will have far-reaching consequences for the global economy

Food shortages. As Sri Lanka’s suffering has shown, social unrest is rising around the world as food shortages increase along with prices for other essential goods. In turn, this will inevitably destroy the myth that demand growth in developing countries can somehow balance the downturn in developed markets

Invest for the future.  Recession will accelerate the transition to a Net Zero economy. The invasion is already reducing fossil fuel demand. And demand patterns are changing very quickly as people refocus on ‘needs’ rather than ‘wants’.

Paradigm Shifts

Some of these changes are already becoming obvious, such as rising levels of debt and the threat of inflation. Others are still to appear. These relate to the way behaviour is changing in response to the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine war in 5 key areas where major paradigm shifts are underway:

DEMAND PATTERNS

Demand patterns paradigm shift in global business

The lockdowns have broken down the inertia surrounding work and home-based routines…

RESHORING SUPPLY CHAINS

Reshoring supply chains paradigm shift in global business

Global supply chains have proved very fragile during the pandemic. They have collapsed…

RENEWABLE ENERGY

Energy abundance paradigm shift in global business

Energy markets are seeing a major paradigm shift, with the pandemic and the Ukraine war accelerating the shift to renewables…

CIRCULAR ECONOMY

Circular economy paradigm shift in global business

The need to reshore supply chains in a world of potential energy abundance suggests that moves towards a circular economy will accelerate…

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING

Advanced manufacturing paradigm shift in global business

Many manufacturing operations still operate as they would have done 500 years ago, or even 50 years ago…

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New Normal in the news

2022
 
Sept PODCAST: Think Tank: Demand collapsing in auto, construction end use markets
  Russian Gas Shortage Could Have Deep Reverberations Interview with GLG
  PODCAST: In the lion’s den: The effects of geopolitics on the financial markets Interview with Sawchuk Wealth
  PODCAST: Think Tank: Chemical distributors less exposed to downturn, still face tough Q4 in Europe
  PODCAST: Think Tank: Sliding fundamentals could reshape global chemicals production
 
Aug PODCAST: Think Tank: Chemicals must stay on low carbon track despite current crises
  Facing up to paradigm shifts – Premium interview
  PODCAST: Think Tank: Global chemical prices collapse, Europe prepares for dry summer, tough winter
  Haja resistência ao impacto – Plástico em revista interview