Rising volatility confirms strength of the paradigm shifts now underway – a strategy for the next 18 months.

“We are living through a watershed era. And that means that the world afterwards will no longer be the same as the world before.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, 27 February

First, we had the Covid-19 pandemic. It has already killed millions of people, and created chaos in supply chains. Next we had war in Ukraine and major sanctions against Russia. This is accelerating reshoring and localisation, and the transition to a Net Zero economy. For example, the International Energy Agency is now urging governments to accelerate the transition to Electric Vehicles and plastic recycling, to reduce demand for fossil fuels.

Now the third ‘Horseman of the Apocalypse’ seems set to appear. Not only are fertiliser costs spiralling along with natural gas prices. But Ukraine and Russia account for 29% of global wheat supply. This creates an increasing risk of famine as the World Bank/IMF have warned. In turn, this makes it increasingly unlikely that we can ever return to “business as usual” and the Old Normal, particularly in light of the other paradigm shifts which are underway.